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Goldman Sachs upgraded Coinbase Global to Buy from Neutral and lifted its 12-month target to $303. The bank raised the target from $294 in the same note. COIN stock jumped about 8% on Monday and closed at $254.92.
Goldman’s target implies roughly 18% upside from that close. Analyst James Yaro said the call reflects “selective optimism” toward US crypto infrastructure firms. The move marked Goldman’s first buy rating on Coinbase since its 2021 coverage start.
Goldman said Coinbase has reduced its dependence on trading fees over time. The bank estimates that infrastructure revenue now makes up about 40% of total revenue. That line includes custody, staking, subscriptions and services. Five years ago, Goldman put that share under 5%.
Goldman said Coinbase has invested in custody and staking for institutions. It also highlighted subscription products and wallet services. The bank said these lines can scale with tokenization activity. It expects that mix to reduce earnings volatility during slower trading periods across different market cycles.
Yaro said infrastructure-heavy brokers can grow with wider adoption trends. He focused on businesses that sell tools, rails, and access. Goldman also noted Coinbase’s scale in the US market. The bank said that scale supports product distribution and liquidity. It also helps Coinbase compete as brokers add crypto offerings.
Coinbase has added products that sit next to spot crypto trading. In December, the company integrated regulated prediction markets through Kalshi in its app. Coinbase also began a phased rollout of commission-free stock and ETF trading. It expanded derivatives access and introduced services aimed at businesses.
Goldman linked the releases to management’s 2026 roadmap. Chief Executive Brian Armstrong has described a goal to build an “everything exchange.” The plan includes stablecoins and tokenization services.
It also includes expanded offerings tied to Base, Coinbase’s layer-2 network. Goldman said Coinbase’s user base can speed early liquidity formation. It also said product breadth can lift infrastructure revenue per customer.
Also Read: Crypto Market News: Coinbase Warns Stablecoin Reward Ban Could Hurt US Competitiveness
Goldman Sachs expects broader crypto adoption in 2026 across retail and institutions. However, it said US policy outcomes still shape the pace of growth. Yaro pointed to a draft crypto market structure bill in Congress as a key catalyst. A stalled bill could limit institutional participation and product expansion.
Goldman Sachs also warned about margin pressure from competition and customer acquisition costs. The bank expects flat adjusted EBITDA margins in 2026. It also cited rate cuts as a headwind for interest-driven income.
Bitcoin traded above $94,000 on Monday, which supported sentiment in crypto-linked stocks. Moreover, Goldman said execution on new products will matter alongside regulation.
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