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Bitcoin traders are anticipating increased volatility when $3.36 billion of options expires on Deribit today, October 3. Almost 28,000 BTC contracts will expire, which is why it is unclear whether the price might move toward the max pain level of $115,000.
The Bitcoin price is slightly above its maximum pain point, currently floating around $120,370. Options are congregated between 100,000 and 120,000, with the highest interest in the call at $120,000. The put-call ratio is 1.13, or bears are positioned more. The ratio, however, relaxed in the last 24 hours to 0.91, which means traders are hedging but not leaning all the way onto severe drops.
ETF inflows and less selling by long-term holders have sustained Bitcoin. The holders in the short term still offer cost basis support, with the September expiry having reset sentiment, as open interest rebuilds as trading enters the fourth quarter.
The Bitcoin options market has undergone a shift, with the NASDAQ-traded IBIT by BlackRock now leading Deribit in open interest. IBIT now has almost $38 billion of Bitcoin options, compared to the $32 billion it had on Deribit. The total of the two venues is nearly $80 billion notional.
Analysts highlight that institutional participation is increasing, with more investors hedging risk and exposure through options. According to Bloomberg data, IBIT prevails in options trading, confirming the increasing role of regulated ETFs in shaping the Bitcoin derivatives market.
The trend indicates that institutional platforms are handling a greater volume than traditional crypto-native exchanges. This growth is likely to have an impact on liquidity and future strategic decisions.
Ethereum will also undergo a large amount of expiry today, as over 216,000 ETH options will expire on Deribit. The notional value of the contracts is $966.51 million. The put-call ratio of 0.93 is slightly bearish; however, the number of calls has been increasing, which has pushed the ratio to 0.50 over the past day.
Ethereum's maximum pain price is $4,200, whereas the market price is $4,508 at the time of writing. This dispersion is an indication that there is a chance of a correction, though analysts have indicated a low probability of a sharp decline.
Players in the market will be watching how ETH expiry resets positioning, as Bitcoin expiries frequently do, particularly as traders size up their strategies going forward in reference to impending monetary policy decisions in the United States.
Also Read: Bitcoin Price Holds $114,000 as ETF Flows Shape October Outlook
