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Bitcoin price is nearing a critical point, with the US economy experiencing slower growth, intractable inflation, and increased energy prices. On March 13, statistics showed that the revised growth rate of the US economy in Q4 2025 had dropped to 0.7% compared to the original 1.4%.
This sluggish performance follows a 4.4% growth in the third quarter. As core inflation has continued to exceed the target of the Federal Reserve, the near-term outlook of Bitcoin is currently under stress, as the general economic condition puts risky assets on the concern list.
According to the latest economic data, the US economy was in a weak position before the geopolitical tension and oil price spike. Core PCE inflation increased by 3.1% in January, which is far ahead of the Fed target of 2%.
The Q4 GDP revision also reflected a weaker-than-anticipated domestic demand because the real final sales dropped to 1.9% compared to the initial forecast of 2.4%. Business investment has become more sluggish, core capital goods orders have not increased, and consumer spending has hardly improved.
The economic background seems to be becoming increasingly challenging for Bitcoin as inflation is stubborn and the growth decelerates. These developments will affect the decisions that the Federal Reserve makes in the future concerning interest rates. Even though the central bank is not likely to alter the present rate, the rising energy prices, coupled with the continued inflation, might compel the Fed to take a more cautious approach. This consequently affects the performance of risk assets such as Bitcoin.
Also Read: How is the Iran Conflict Impacting Bitcoin’s Price in 2026?
Although the macroeconomic issues are increasing, Bitcoin has demonstrated resilience. According to the latest data, as of March 13, Bitcoin was trading at approximately 70,600, having hit 74,000 intraday, meaning that demand remains strong, especially among Bitcoin ETFs. The increase in inflow by 583 million between March 9 and March 12 indicates that the institutional interest is still strong despite the larger economic problems.
Nonetheless, Bitcoin is getting its second significant challenge, with the market struggling with the unpredictability of the US economy and oil prices worldwide.
With the Federal Reserve meeting on March 17-18, market expectations for rate cuts have already been scaled back. While Bitcoin's internal strength appears to be holding up, its path forward will largely depend on how the Fed balances concerns about inflation and growth.
As Bitcoin keeps recovering, it can hit the $75,000 mark, which is a significant liquidity level. Nevertheless, a continuation of inflation concerns and high oil prices may put pressure on Bitcoin and push it back to the level of $60,000 to $69,000, which is an important demand area.
