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Bitcoin and major equity indexes have moved more closely together through 2025. Both markets hit record highs before selling off. According to analysts, tariff headlines, interest-rate expectations, and AI valuation concerns drove much of the volatility. AI-related shares and bitcoin have shared high-beta traits that attract momentum capital. Analysts link the tighter relationship to growing participation from traditional retail and institutional investors.
Bitcoin rallied earlier in the year after the election of US President Donald Trump. Investors expected a friendlier US stance toward digital assets. In April, new tariff announcements helped pull stocks and cryptocurrencies lower before both markets rebounded. Bitcoin later reached an all-time high above $126,000 in early October.
On October 10, fresh tariff threats triggered the largest Bitcoin liquidation event in crypto history, with more than $19 billion wiped out across leveraged positions. Bitcoin has struggled to regain momentum since that drop and now risks ending 2025 with its first annual decline since 2022.
On-chain metrics suggest a change in retail trading behavior. Data from CryptoQuant show that entities holding up to 1 BTC have sent fewer coins to Binance per day than at any time on record in 2025. Analysts describe this as a structural decline in “shrimp” exchange inflows. The pattern stands out even against the 2022 bear market.
CryptoQuant’s 30-day average shows daily shrimp inflows to Binance near 411 BTC in 2025. The same measure stood around 2,675 BTC per day in December 2022. Analysts link part of the decline to the rise of US spot Bitcoin ETFs. The shift helps explain why retail exchange activity looks muted despite Bitcoin’s earlier 2025 surge.
Also Read: Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin’s 2025 Pattern Sparks New Bull Trap Warning
Bitcoin price has fallen about 28% from its October peak and has traded near the $90,000 area in early December. According to research, the aggregate cost basis for US spot ETF buyers is near $83,000. This level has acted as a reference point during prior drawdowns tied to negative ETF flows. Two major corrections since 2024 stabilized around similar ETF break-even levels. Analysts now track if this zone can provide support again as weekly ETF flows turn negative.
US spot Bitcoin ETFs hold about $117.67 billion in the asset, or roughly 6.55% of the total supply. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust reportedly recorded about $2.3 billion of net outflows in November. Even so, some analytics firms note stronger whale long positioning compared with retail. The whale versus retail delta has hinted at a possible local bottom, though analysts continue to monitor liquidation risks.
In addition, forecasts for year-end bitcoin levels have shifted after the October crash and a November drop. Some bullish calls earlier in 2025 projected $150,000 to $200,000, supported by expected ETF inflows. Strategy’s CEO Phong Le has since warned of a possible “bitcoin winter.”
Investors also focus on the Federal Reserve’s December meeting. Markets expect a quarter-point rate cut. Furthermore, options traders last week assigned a 15% chance that Bitcoin will finish 2025 below $80,000, down from about 20% a few weeks earlier.
