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BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has declared the end of Bitcoin’s four-year cycle, arguing that liquidity, not halving events, now determines price direction. “As the four-year anniversary of this fourth cycle is upon us, traders wish to apply the historical pattern and forecast an end to this bull run,” Hayes wrote in a Thursday blog post. He added that while the pattern worked in earlier years, it “will fail this time.”
According to Hayes, Bitcoin’s price movement has always depended on the supply and quantity of money—particularly the U.S. dollar and the Chinese yuan. He stated that cycles did not end due to halving timelines or institutional involvement, but rather when monetary conditions tightened. The idea of a predictable four-year rhythm, he said, has lost meaning in a changing macroeconomic environment.
His comments arrive as Bitcoin trades near $121,977, gaining 95.46% in a year, according to CoinMarketCap. The asset’s market capitalization stands at $2.43 trillion, supported by a circulating supply of 19.93 million BTC.
Hayes outlined that Bitcoin’s major rallies have always aligned with expansions in money supply rather than halving events. The first bull run, he said, coincided with the Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing and China’s large-scale credit expansion. Both markets supported liquidity until late 2013, when central banks slowed printing, ending the cycle.
The second cycle, often called the “ICO boom,” relied heavily on Chinese credit and yuan devaluation in 2015. Bitcoin’s rise mirrored this easy liquidity, yet the market fell sharply once China curbed credit and the dollar strengthened.
The third cycle, during the COVID-19 pandemic, unfolded under extraordinary U.S. monetary stimulus, while China held a tighter stance. It ended when the Federal Reserve began tightening in late 2021. “Bitcoin in the current state of human civilization is the best form of money ever created,” Hayes wrote. “Given that Pax Americana quasi-empire rules via the US dollar, we value Bitcoin relative to the dollar.”
Hayes believes today’s market is different since government-driven liquidity injections are in play. The U.S. Treasury, he said, has moved $2.5 trillion from the Federal Reserve’s Reverse Repo program into circulation by issuing more Treasury bills. At the same time, former U.S. President Donald Trump seeks to “run it hot” by encouraging easier monetary policy to expand growth and reduce debt.
Hayes also pointed to a shift in China’s economic stance. Policymakers, he noted, are now working to “end deflation” instead of draining liquidity. This adjustment removes a major headwind that previously suppressed global risk markets. With the U.S. expanding liquidity and China turning neutral, Bitcoin’s rise may continue under new conditions.
Arthur Hayes’ remarks mark a turning point in how Bitcoin’s market cycles are viewed. He asserts that global liquidity, not halving events, now drives Bitcoin’s trajectory. With the U.S. Treasury injecting trillions and China easing deflationary pressure, monetary expansion appears to be the dominant force.
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