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Bitcoin remains under pressure below the $80,000 level after days of sustained selling and weak rebounds. Price action shows fragile momentum as analysts point to a broader market shift rather than a brief pullback. According to analyst Axel Adler, Bitcoin entered a bear cycle in October 2025. He says the market now moves through a correction after peaking near $125,000.
On-chain indicators show rising stress among holders. Still, the data does not confirm full capitulation. The signals suggest a mid-cycle adjustment as confidence fades and losses increase.
On-chain metrics show growing pressure across the Bitcoin holder base. The percent unrealised loss has climbed sharply since January as prices fell from $95,000 to near $78,000. The metric rose from about 7% to roughly 22. That means a larger share of coins now sit below their purchase price. Even so, the level remains far below historic capitulation zones.
In past bear markets during 2019 and 2023, unrealised losses reached between 40% and 60%. By contrast, current readings point to discomfort rather than forced selling across the network. At the same time, holder behavior shows restraint. Long-term participants still show limited urgency to exit positions. This pattern aligns with a stress phase rather than a final market bottom.
Adler also tracks the LTH/STH SOPR ratio to assess profitability trends. This measure compares realized profits from long-term holders against short-term holders. The ratio peaked near 1.85 in October. Since then, it dropped to around 1.13. That marks a decline of about 40% and signals tightening profit margins.
The ratio remains above 1.0 because the ratio experienced a decline. The historical pattern shows that when prices drop below that threshold, most short-term investors will give up their positions. The past cycles, which occurred in 2015, 2019, and 2023, reached their lowest points between 0.6 and 0.8. The market experienced these movements during established market bottoms when investors had to sell their assets.
Long-term holders maintain their selling positions at current market prices, which exceed their initial costs. Adler states that a drop below the 1.0 mark represents actual investor surrender. A rise towards 1.3 would help restore market trust.
Market uncertainty also reflects renewed debate around quantum computing risks. Some investors cite the issue as a reason for reducing Bitcoin exposure. Mike Novogratz, head of Galaxy Digital, addressed the topic during an earnings call on Tuesday. He dismissed quantum computing as an immediate threat to Bitcoin.
Novogratz said quantum risks affect the broader world more than Bitcoin. He added that Bitcoin can adapt over time, while some traders use the topic as justification for selling. The discussion gained traction last month when Christopher Wood at Jefferies removed a 10% Bitcoin allocation from a model portfolio. He cited quantum risks as the reason.
Meanwhile, Coinbase acknowledged quantum computing as a long-term threat to digital assets. Separately, the Ethereum Foundation created a dedicated post-quantum security team this month.
With prices weak and structural questions growing, the market now watches whether stress deepens into capitulation or stabilizes into a prolonged correction phase — will Bitcoin’s next move confirm fear or resilience?
Also Read: Bitcoin Slips Below $77,000, Ethereum Tests $2,300 Support
Bitcoin price is still below $80K as selling pressure continues and on-chain data shows rising stress without capitulation. Unrealised losses have increased while the LTH STH SOPR ratio reflects shrinking profit margins. The data points to a mid-cycle correction as markets await clearer direction.
