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JPMorgan analysts said investors shifted toward Bitcoin ETFs as gold funds lost assets after the Iran war began, creating a sharp split between two major safe-haven trades. The research team, led by Managing Director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, said SPDR Gold Shares lost about 2.7% of assets under management since February. In contrast, BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust gained 1.5% over the same period.
The move followed heavy pressure on gold ETFs. During the first three weeks of March, gold funds recorded nearly $11 billion in outflows. Bitcoin gained from part of that reallocation, according to JPMorgan. Gold also fell about 15% during the month. The decline came after the metal reached a record high of nearly $5,500 per ounce in January 2026.
The market shift added a new layer to the 'debasement trade,' a term investors began using in October 2024. The phrase refers to buying gold and Bitcoin to hedge against currency debasement. That strategy gained attention amid high government deficits, inflation pressure, geopolitical risks, and weaker trust in central banks. By late 2024, gold ETFs still held the stronger position.
Then, in the fourth quarter of 2025, the relationship moved back in favor of gold. Bitcoin inflows slowed, while gold kept a stronger momentum. Yet the US air strikes on Iranian territory on February 27, 2026, changed the short-term picture. Instead of moving mainly into gold, investors rotated on a net basis into Bitcoin.
JPMorgan said IBIT inflows since 2024 now stand at about twice GLD accumulation over the same period. That shift reduced gold’s earlier year-on-year lead over Bitcoin. Still, it did not fully erase gold’s strength from the fourth quarter of 2025. That left both assets central to the same macro hedge, but with Bitcoin gaining fresh flow support.
Institutional Bitcoin exposure has also grown through Strategy, the world’s largest corporate Bitcoin holder. JPMorgan estimated that Strategy could buy about $30 billion worth of Bitcoin in 2026. That figure would top the company’s roughly $22 billion in Bitcoin purchases during each of 2024 and 2025. The estimate assumes Strategy keeps its current pace.
So far this year, Strategy has added 145,834 BTC, worth about $11 billion. Much of that buying came below its average cost basis of around $75,000. The company now holds 818,334 BTC, valued at more than $65 billion. JPMorgan said Strategy re-accelerated its Bitcoin purchases in April.
The analysts linked that buying pattern to market conditions and financing availability. TD Cowen also raised its price target on Strategy to $395 from $385 earlier this week.
JPMorgan also examined who stood behind the Bitcoin ETF inflows. The firm said retail investors and registered investment advisors accounted for most ETF purchases. At the same time, hedge funds moved in the opposite direction. Short interest in IBIT rose after the start of the war, while short positions in GLD declined.
The Panigirtzoglou team viewed that setup as a hedging strategy, not clear fundamental doubt. In precious metals, silver gave the clearest contrast. Silver ETF inflows from recent months fully reversed. That made Bitcoin’s flow strength more visible against parts of the metals market.
JPMorgan also said the Bitcoin-to-gold volatility ratio fell to about 1.5, a record low. On a risk-adjusted basis, that improved Bitcoin’s standing relative to gold. The bank uses that ratio in longer-term models. Those models placed Bitcoin, on a volatility-adjusted basis, in a range up to $266,000.
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Still, JPMorgan noted those targets came from separate reports in late 2025 and early 2026. They did not belong to the Iran-specific debasement trade framework. In Iran, crypto activity rose by 700% after the war began, according to Chainalysis data. Users moved funds from local exchanges into self-custody and international platforms.
Panigirtzoglou said the rise showed crypto’s role under geopolitical pressure. He said cryptocurrencies can act as a safe haven in countries facing economic, monetary, and geopolitical stress.
JPMorgan’s research shows Bitcoin ETFs gained demand as gold funds lost assets after Iran war tensions. IBIT outpaced GLD flows, while Strategy’s continued Bitcoin buying added institutional weight. The data points to Bitcoin’s growing role in the debasement trade and safe-haven discussion.
