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Bitcoin hovered near $101,000 at the start of Friday’s Hong Kong trading session after dropping below a crucial long-term support. According to on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant, the market has now entered an “extremely bearish” phase. The firm noted that Bitcoin’s fall beneath the 365-day moving average of $102,000 marks the loss of a major psychological level that defined the current bull cycle’s bottom.
CryptoQuant’s latest report said the break below the long-term average mirrors the pattern seen in June 2022, when Bitcoin entered a prolonged downturn. Its Bull Score Index, a composite indicator of market strength, dropped to zero for the first time since that period. This rare reading signals deep weakening in market confidence and momentum.
The report further noted that traders’ realized price bands suggest a possible decline toward $72,000 if the price fails to recover above $100,000 soon. The firm also identified $91,000 as the next potential structural support level based on Metcalfe’s network valuation model. CryptoQuant warned that failing to reclaim the 365-day moving average promptly could lead to a steeper correction in the near term.
The analytics firm added that weakening fundamentals have amplified downside risks. Falling inflows, lower network activity, and flattening on-chain valuation metrics have all contributed to a cooling market. Analysts compared the current setup to late 2021, when Bitcoin’s similar technical breakdown triggered a sharp and extended drawdown.
Despite growing caution, Glassnode’s data presents a different perspective. Its latest charts show Bitcoin’s price remains above multiple long-term valuation bands, implying resilience among holders. The firm’s on-chain metrics indicate that most investors continue to hold profitable positions even as volatility rises.
The Realized price - the average acquisition cost of circulating Bitcoin - stays below the market rate, confirming profitability for long-term holders. The Active Realized Price measures cost bases for recently active coins, reflecting short-term trader activity. Another line, Formula 10, tracks higher valuation levels often tested during bullish surges.
Glassnode’s data also includes four historical all-time-high markers from previous cycles, providing a framework for analyzing long-term price performance. Throughout 2025, Bitcoin has consistently traded above both realized price bands, signaling that widespread capitulation remains limited and investor conviction is still strong.
Another Glassnode chart tracking Bitcoin’s percent supply in profit shows profitability between 45% and nearly 100% since 2021. Periods exceeding 90% have historically aligned with overheated markets, such as early 2021 and late 2024. When profitability drops below 55%, markets typically experience deep corrections, as seen in mid-2022 and early 2023.
Currently, the data indicates that over 80% of Bitcoin’s supply remains in profit. However, this ratio has slightly decreased as prices slipped under $102,000. The modest decline suggests that although most holders are still profitable, momentum has cooled after months of rallying strength.
Amid this backdrop, one question emerges: Can Bitcoin reclaim its long-term average before bearish pressure deepens further?
Bitcoin’s drop below the $102K mark signals growing bearish sentiment, as CryptoQuant warns of potential deeper losses. Yet, Glassnode data shows many holders remain in profit, suggesting structural resilience. Market watchers now await whether Bitcoin can reclaim its long-term moving average soon.
Read More: Bitcoin Price Struggles to Stay Above $100,000 Amid Crypto Market Slowdown
