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Market participants across the digital asset space are closely watching as the US inflation report for September approaches. The data, due Friday, is expected to show inflation moving past the 3% mark for the first time this year. Analysts believe the result could have a significant impact on both traditional and digital markets in the coming days.
The release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) has been delayed by a 24-day government shutdown, turning this report into one of the most anticipated economic updates since early October. Economists project a 0.4% monthly increase and a 3.1% annual rise, figures that could define the direction of risk assets heading into November.
If the CPI number crosses 3.1%, investors may temper expectations for an early rate cut. On the other hand, a softer reading near 3% could lift confidence across equities and crypto markets.
Market analyst Ted Pillows remarked that inflation at or below 3% would be positive for traders, while anything higher could weigh on sentiment. According to Trading Economics, this report may act as the first actual test of the Federal Reserve’s new data-driven approach since the shutdown began.
Independent analyst Ash Crypto added that a print above 3.1% would represent the highest inflation rate since June 2024, signaling renewed price pressure. He noted that a figure close to expectations would likely be neutral, but anything below could encourage liquidity to flow back into “risk-on” sectors such as digital assets.
Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) have remained strong throughout the period leading up to the release of the CPI data. Bitcoin’s price increased by 1.68% in the last 24 hours, and its current price is $110,457.79. Meanwhile, its market cap is nearly $2.2 trillion. $52.55 billion worth of Bitcoin has been traded in total, which is slightly less than on the previous day.
Graphs indicate that Bitcoin rose from $108,286 earlier in the day and reached more than $111,000 before retracing to its current position. The analysts are attributing the rise to the return of institutional investors, and the general market has a small hope that better data will be released on Friday.
Ethereum increased in value by 1.34% to $3,884.71, thereby raising its market capitalization to approximately $468.87 billion. The cryptocurrency's daily trading volume dropped to $35.85 billion; however, the asset quickly rebounded from a low of roughly $3,822. Several price jumps throughout the day indicate substantial accumulation, and the support for this is the news about a potential ETH-linked exchange-traded fund, which has generated interest among investors.
For most dealers, the fact that Bitcoin managed to stay above the $110K mark and Ethereum's minor retreat around the $3,880 level are the most important indicators of the market's confidence prior to the release of inflation figures.
Matt Maley, chief market strategist at Miller Tabak, told Bloomberg that even small deviations from CPI expectations could affect the Federal Reserve’s next decision. Although the Fed has recently placed more emphasis on the labor market, inflation still plays a significant role in shaping rate policy.
A report from Barron’s indicated that even if inflation runs slightly hotter, policymakers are unlikely to shift course. Futures data from the CME FedWatch Tool shows a 98.3% probability of a rate cut next Wednesday, reflecting growing belief that slowing job growth will drive monetary easing.
Still, the government shutdown may complicate the outlook ahead of the Fed’s December meeting, when another cut is anticipated. Economic data gaps caused by the closure could make future decisions more uncertain.
The delayed U.S. inflation report is setting the tone for global markets. A CPI reading above 3% could dampen rate cut hopes, while lower data may lift Bitcoin and Ethereum. Traders remain cautious but ready for a possible crypto rally.
Read More: CPI Data to Test Bitcoin’s Stability Amid Economic Uncertainty and Trade Tensions
