Will Ethereum Be the Biggest Macro Trade in the Next 10 Years?

The launch of US spot Ethereum ETFs in July 2024 was a turning point
Will Ethereum Be the Biggest Macro Trade in the Next 10 Years?
Written By:
Pardeep Sharma
Reviewed By:
Atchutanna Subodh
Published on

Overview

  • Ethereum ETFs have unlocked billions in institutional inflows, boosting mainstream adoption.

  • The Ethereum blockchain secures $44B+ through Layer-2 scaling and tokenized assets.

  • Staking and restaking make Ethereum a productive asset, strengthening its role in global cryptocurrencies.

Ethereum price fluctuates around $4,325 after a strong summer rally, taking center stage in the global crypto market. This rise followed the launch of US spot Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and the growing adoption of its network. 

Ethereum has once again taken center stage in the global crypto market. The pressing question now is whether Ethereum has what it takes to become the biggest macro trade of the next decade.

Institutional Entry Through ETFs

The launch of US spot Ethereum ETFs in July 2024 was a turning point. For the first time, mainstream investors such as pension funds, registered investment advisors, and corporate treasuries gained direct access to ETH through regulated and familiar financial products. The approval by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) was seen as a historic moment. 

On the first day of trading, the funds saw more than $1 billion in volume. Over the past year, billions of dollars have flowed into these ETFs, with some days in August 2025 recording massive inflows. For example, net creations reached around $501 million on August 13 and $520 million on August 14, although there was a net outflow of about $59 million on August 15.

At the same time, Ethereum futures and options markets on CME have grown rapidly. Trading activity in ETH contracts has risen sharply in 2025 compared to previous years. This creates a deeper market for hedge funds and institutions, making it easier to manage risk, trade volatility, and construct complex strategies. Liquidity and accessibility together mark Ethereum’s arrival as a credible asset in the institutional landscape.

The Impact of the Dencun Upgrade

Ethereum’s Dencun upgrade, activated on March 13, 2024, has been one of the most important technical steps in its history. It introduced a feature called EIP-4844, also known as proto-danksharding. This change created a new type of data storage called “blobs” that significantly lowered the costs of using Ethereum’s Layer-2 networks.

The immediate effect has been the explosive growth of the Layer-2 economy. These Layer-2s, also known as rollups, process transactions off the main Ethereum chain while still settling on it. With Dencun in place, their costs have dropped, and more applications have become affordable. 

By August 2025, the total value secured on Ethereum price scaling solutions stands at around $44.2 billion, which is a 46 percent increase over the previous year. Arbitrum One leads with $19.5 billion, Base follows with $15.4 billion , while OP Mainnet and zkSync Era also hold sizable market shares. This growth proves that Ethereum is on the path to becoming a global settlement layer capable of supporting applications at scale.

Also Read - Why Ethereum Rally More Solid Than it Looks?

Tokenization of Real-World Assets

The Ethereum blockchain is also preferred for the tokenization of traditional financial assets. In March 2024, BlackRock launched the USD Institutional Digital Liquidity Fund, also known as BUIDL, directly on Ethereum. Within one year, the fund surpassed $1 billion in assets under management. This means US treasuries and cash-like assets are now represented as tokens that can be traded and transferred 24/7.

Banks and financial institutions are moving in the same direction. J.P. Morgan has begun experimenting with blockchain-based settlement through its Kinexys initiative, including concepts such as deposit tokens. These developments suggest that Ethereum is no longer just a network for cryptocurrencies but is becoming the backbone for global finance.

Staking, Restaking, and Yield

Ethereum’s proof-of-stake system is another important driver of its macro potential. Holders of Ether who stake their tokens to secure the network currently earn a yield of around 2.8 to 3 percent. About 30 percent of the total Ether supply is staked, and the validator set is becoming more decentralized over time. Lido, the largest staking provider, now controls about 24 to 25 percent of staked Ethereum, down from earlier dominance levels, which is a positive sign for decentralization.

A new concept called restaking is expanding Ethereum’s role further. EigenLayer, the leading restaking platform, crossed $20 billion in total value locked in 2024 and remains the market leader in 2025. Through restaking, Ether can secure additional services such as oracles, data availability layers, and other protocols. This transforms ETH into a productive asset that acts as collateral for multiple systems simultaneously.

Environmental and Regulatory Progress

Ethereum made a historic shift in 2022 by moving from proof-of-work to proof-of-stake, reducing its energy usage by 99.95 percent. This has removed one of the biggest barriers for institutions with environmental mandates. On the regulatory side, the SEC closed its Ethereum 2.0 inquiry in June 2024 without any charges. 

This came shortly after the approval of spot ETFs, signaling greater clarity for investors. However, not every issue is resolved. The treatment of staking services, DeFi applications, and other innovations remains uncertain, leaving some regulatory risk on the table.

Supply Dynamics of Ethereum

Ethereum supply is governed by the burn mechanism introduced in EIP-1559, combined with the issuance from proof-of-stake. In times of high on-chain activity, the burn can outweigh new issuance, making the cryptocurrency deflationary. However, since the Dencun upgrade lowered transaction fees, supply has recently ticked slightly higher. This shows that Ethereum’s supply dynamics are demand-driven and not permanently deflationary. The long-term outcome depends on continued demand for blockspace.

Competitive Landscape and Risks

Despite Ethereum’s progress, it faces significant competition. Other blockchains offer higher throughput and lower fees, and developer activity is increasingly spread across different ecosystems. Ethereum’s May 2025 “Pectra” upgrade introduced account abstraction features (EIP-7702) and raised validator limits, aiming to improve user experience and scalability. These upgrades are designed to help Ethereum maintain its lead, but execution risk remains.

Fragmentation across Layer-2 networks could limit liquidity and composability, while issues around miner-extractable value (MEV) continue to raise concerns about fairness and neutrality. The concentration of staking providers, though improving, still requires careful governance. Additionally, a global macro downturn or sharp tightening of liquidity could hit both ETF inflows and on-chain activity simultaneously.

Also Read - Ethereum Outpaces Bitcoin: Could an ATH Be Next?

A Defining Macro Trade?

To become the defining macro trade of the next 10 years, an asset must offer global access, liquidity, scalability, and real economic utility. Ethereum is beginning to meet all of these conditions. 

It now has US-regulated ETFs with billions in inflows, deep futures and options markets, a functioning Layer-2 economy with over $44 billion secured, a real yield of 2.8 to 3 percent from staking, a growing restaking ecosystem, and real-world financial assets being tokenized directly on its blockchain.

At the same time, Ethereum is now environmentally sustainable and has made meaningful progress with regulators. These strengths are balanced by risks such as competing blockchains, regulatory uncertainty, and the challenge of sustaining fee revenue after scaling upgrades.

If Ethereum continues on its roadmap, attracts more tokenized assets, and maintains its dominance in the settlement of digital value, it has a strong chance of being the biggest macro trade of the next decade. Its success will ultimately depend on whether adoption of its blockspace and collateral grows faster than the risks and challenges it faces.


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