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Ethereum’s MVRV ratio shows the market is profitable but not overheated, suggesting more room to grow.
Exchange ETH supply is at multi-year lows, limiting sell pressure and supporting price strength.
DeFi activity and network usage remain robust, reinforcing Ethereum’s long-term fundamentals.
Ethereum has remained one of the most closely watched assets in the crypto market through 2025. After a strong performance in the first half of the year, the recent volatility in October raised an important question: has Ethereum already reached its cycle top, or is there more growth ahead?
Current data and on-chain indicators suggest that the cycle top is likely not in yet. Ethereum continues to show strong network fundamentals, limited exchange supply, and steady on-chain demand. Some short-term risks are visible, but most long-term metrics still lean toward more potential upside.
Also Read: Ethereum Treasury Stocks Suggest Possible Market Turnaround
During October 2025, Ethereum showed sharp price swings, reflecting a battle between buyers and sellers. Between October 10 and October 14, Ethereum traded between roughly $3,600 and $4,700. After a weekend drop that followed negative global news related to US–China trade tensions, prices recovered to around $4,000 by mid-October.
This quick rebound showed that there is still strong demand whenever prices fall sharply. Even though volatility remains high, buyers are willing to step in during dips, which typically occur in the middle of a cycle rather than at its end.
The Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio is a well-known on-chain metric that compares the market capitalization of Ethereum to the average price at which all coins last moved on the blockchain. When MVRV is too high, it usually signals that investors are in extreme profit, and a correction may be near.
Late September and early October 2025 saw the Ethereum MVRV ratio at about 1.9 to 2.0. At this level, holders are in profit but not to the point where it occurred at previous market tops. During previous cycles, ETH's MVRV moved above 3.5 before corrections started big time.
This range on hand shows that though some investors are selling profits, the market in general has not yet gone into overheated levels, which signify the culmination of a bull cycle. Simply put, Ethereum still appears to have room to move upwards before it hits its actual top.
One of the key drivers of Ethereum's bullish argument is the reduction in the volume of ETH sitting on exchanges. Over the course of 2025, increasingly larger amounts of Ethereum have been transferred off exchanges and into staking contracts, DeFi protocols, or long-term cold storage.
Through October 2025, exchange reserves of ETH sat at multi-year lows. This is significant as when less ETH is sitting on exchanges, there is similarly less supply that can be rapidly sold. When demand rises, the constrained supply on exchanges has the potential to escalate the Ethereum price swiftly.
This long-term trend indicates that the majority of investors prefer to hold Ethereum instead of actively trading it. Historically, periods of low supply in the exchange market have preceded phases of strong price growth.
Ethereum's derivatives and futures market has experienced a high volume of trading activity in 2025. Total open interest, or active futures contracts, has remained high across major platforms. This means that traders are heavily involved in both long and short positions.
High open interest can be a double-edged sword. It shows strong investor participation and market confidence. On the other hand, it also creates the possibility of sharp corrections when too many traders are using leverage. When prices move quickly in one direction, leveraged positions can be liquidated, causing rapid price drops or spikes.
Now, the derivatives market shows speculation and excitement, but not the excessive overconfidence that normally characterizes a final cycle top. Funding rates are positive but steady, which indicates that traders are optimistic but not yet in a mania stage.
Ethereum's shift to proof-of-stake has added a new variable to its market dynamics: the validator exit queue. Validators are actors who stake ETH to secure the network. When they decide to leave validating, they have to queue up before they can withdraw their staked coins.
Early in October 2025, there were reports that millions of ETH were sitting in the validator exit queue. This was a concern for some investors about potential selling pressure when the withdrawals are made. Ethereum's protocol, though, only lets a few validators exit daily, which translates to these coins being released bit by bit, not simultaneously.
Although this may put short-term pressure on the market, it won't cause a large sell-off in the near future. The rolling release allows selling to be absorbed by the market without a massive price shock.
One of Ethereum's largest strengths remains its usage on the network. Daily active addresses have remained in the hundreds of thousands, with consistent user activity. All of DeFi, NFTs, and layer-2 scaling solutions have led to the demand.
Total Value Locked (TVL) across DeFi platforms built on Ethereum has also shown resilience, even through periods of market volatility. This steady demand for block space and transaction fees indicates that the network is not only alive but expanding.
Healthy network activity usually aligns with the middle stages of a bull market, when real usage supports the price rather than pure speculation. As long as active addresses, transaction volumes, and developer activity remain high, the network fundamentals support the case for further growth.
Combining all the key data points gives a clearer picture. Ethereum’s valuation based on MVRV is elevated but still below the danger zone. Exchange supply is at record lows, meaning the available coins for sale are limited. Network activity remains strong, showing continued real-world use.
These conditions are typical of a maturing bull cycle, not the end of one. Historically, Ethereum’s price tends to peak when both on-chain activity and valuation metrics reach extreme levels of enthusiasm, something not yet visible in current data.
The presence of high derivatives open interest and validator withdrawals introduces short-term risk, but these are more likely to cause temporary corrections rather than end the cycle completely.
Despite the positive outlook, there are still risks that could temporarily halt Ethereum’s progress. The biggest are macroeconomic factors. Global events, such as trade tensions, interest rate shifts, or regulatory announcements, can quickly impact investor sentiment.
For example, the brief market dip in early October followed concerns over renewed US–China trade issues. Such events often trigger panic selling across risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
Another factor to monitor is leverage. If futures traders continue to build large positions with borrowed funds, even a small negative move in price can trigger cascading liquidations. This can cause fast drops before the market stabilizes again.
Finally, the pace of validator exits remains important. If the withdrawal queue clears more quickly than expected, a wave of ETH may enter the market. However, as of now, the slow-release mechanism built into the Ethereum protocol makes this unlikely to cause a crash.
Also Read: When Could Ethereum Reach $5,000? A Realistic Timeline
Based on current on-chain and market data, Ethereum’s cycle top does not appear to be complete. Most of the key indicators still support the possibility of further growth.
While short-term volatility and profit-taking can cause pullbacks, these are normal in an ongoing bull phase. The combination of limited supply, strong user activity, and steady network growth points toward the potential for higher prices in the coming months.
Ethereum remains fundamentally strong. The recent turbulence seems more like a healthy correction within a larger bullish cycle rather than the start of a prolonged downturn. Unless on-chain data or macro conditions shift dramatically, the evidence continues to suggest that Ethereum has not yet reached its cycle top.
1. Has Ethereum reached its cycle top in 2025?
Current data suggests not yet. Ethereum’s MVRV ratio, exchange supply, and network activity indicate that the market remains strong with more upside potential.
2. What does Ethereum’s MVRV ratio reveal about the market?
Ethereum’s MVRV ratio, currently around 1.9–2.0, shows investors are in profit but not at the extreme levels seen in past market tops, signaling room for further growth.
3. How does DeFi impact Ethereum’s price cycle?
Rising activity in DeFi applications increases on-chain demand for ETH, strengthens network usage, and supports a longer and more sustainable bull cycle.
4. Why is low ETH exchange supply important?
A decline in ETH held on exchanges means less available supply for quick selling, creating conditions for stronger price rallies when demand rises.
5. What risks could affect Ethereum’s growth outlook?
Short-term risks include leveraged liquidations, validator withdrawals, and global macroeconomic events, but none currently point to a completed cycle top.
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