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XRP at Risk Near $2.80: Heavy supply cluster could trigger selling if prices break lower.
Bearish Technicals Ahead: MACD crossover and EMA levels hint at a 20–25% correction.
Regulatory Uncertainty: SEC ETF delays and bans in major markets cloud adoption outlook.
XRP has been one of the most discussed cryptocurrencies in 2025. After a remarkable rally of nearly 400% over the past year, the digital asset that supports RippleNet’s cross-border payments is now facing concerns about whether its price increase is excessive. With technical warning signals appearing and regulatory uncertainty still in play, September might be a crucial month for XRP holders.
In the last one year, XRP price has jumped from $0.50 to over $3.50, experiencing sharp rallies and corrections throughout. The token reached a high of $2.50 in late 2024, then settled in the $2.50 to $3.50 range for most of 2025.
Much of this volatility has been tied to regulatory and product milestones:
SEC settlement: Ripple Labs ended its long-running legal battle with the US Securities and Exchange Commission by paying a $125 million fine. Each development in the case drove price swings.
Stablecoin launch: Ripple introduced its RLUSD stablecoin in December 2024, aiming to complement XRP in its payment ecosystem. Early adoption remains uncertain, and investors are watching closely.
ETF filings: Following approval of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs last year, 16 fund managers have filed for an XRP ETF. The SEC has delayed decisions until mid-October, leaving the crypto market in suspense.
Despite these bullish headlines, XRP ended August with a 22% monthly loss, raising fresh concerns about whether September could bring another leg down.
Chart indicators suggest XRP is approaching a crucial test. According to Glassnode, the heaviest supply cluster lies between $2.81 and $2.82, where approximately 1.71 billion XRP have been accumulated. As of early September, XRP was trading just above that zone near $2.85.
If XRP drops below $2.80, it could trigger a wave of profit-taking, pushing prices toward the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement near $2.73, a level that acted as strong support earlier this year.
Another red flag comes from the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator on the weekly chart. Analysts expect a bearish crossover in September, when the faster-moving blue line falls below the slower orange line, often signaling fading momentum.
Historically, XRP’s bearish MACD crosses in May 2021, September 2021, and March 2025 preceded corrections of 50% or more.
In the near future, the 50-week exponential moving average (EMA) at about $2.17 is the first downside target. A clear break below that level could extend the correction toward $1.19. This aligns with the 200-week EMA and the average purchase cost of many current holders.
XRP faces significant fundamental risks:
ETF delays: If the SEC denies ETF applications in October, institutional demand for XRP could remain muted.
Global hurdles: XRP is banned in China and faces uncertainty in India, two of the world’s largest economies. Such regulatory barriers limit adoption.
Competition: While Ripple positions XRP as a global payment solution, rivals are formidable. Bitcoin dominates as a store of value, Ethereum offers unmatched smart contract flexibility, and stablecoins like USDT and USDC already facilitate cross-border transactions. Traditional players such as SWIFT and PayPal are also innovating in real-time settlement, posing additional competition.
These risks may not immediately derail XRP, but they highlight the fragility of its current lofty valuation.
Since July 2024, XRP has often bounced back after reaching its 50-week EMA. Some analysts think this could happen again, especially if ETF approvals come later this year. Several forecasts still aim for $4 or more in the next few months, assuming XRP can keep its current support levels.
Ripple’s expanding ecosystem and its settlement with the SEC have boosted long-term investor confidence. Institutional investors are now more ready to participate, as legal uncertainty in the U.S. has been resolved.
Also Read: XRP Price Recovery Stalls as Tokenization Forecasts Reach $16.4 Trillion
$2.80 support zone: Holding this level could prevent a deeper correction.
MACD crossover: A confirmed bearish cross may trigger further selling pressure.
ETF headlines: Any leaks or updates ahead of the October deadline could spark volatility.
Will XRP crash in September? It probably won’t collapse, but there is a real chance of a 20-25% correction if key support fails. Traders should prepare for increased volatility. Long-term investors might choose to hold smaller positions until the regulatory situation becomes clearer.
XRP’s long-term goal of facilitating global payments is still on track. However, in the short term, the token appears overpriced and exposed, which means September is more likely to bring instability than a steady rise.
1. Why is XRP at risk of crashing in September 2025?
XRP is testing key support near $2.80 while bearish technical signals suggest weakening momentum.
2. What role does the SEC ETF decision play in XRP’s price?
ETF approvals could fuel institutional demand, while delays or rejections may limit upside.
3. Could XRP fall below $2.00 this month?
If the $2.80 support breaks, XRP could slide toward its 50-week EMA near $2.17, with further risk down to $1.19.
4. What are XRP’s main global challenges?
Regulatory bans in China, uncertainty in India, and stiff competition from Bitcoin, Ethereum, and stablecoins.
5. Is XRP still a good long-term investment?
Yes, its payment vision remains intact, but short-term volatility makes cautious positioning safer.
