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Bitcoin has closed negative in 8 of the last 12 September, averaging -3.77%.
Whale accumulation hits records, but ETFs saw $751 million in outflows in August.
Fed cuts and a weaker Dollar could push BTC above $120K despite short-term risks.
Bitcoin begins September 2025 under pressure, trading at $110,383 after closing August with a monthly decline of more than 5%, its first red month since April. This weakness has amplified concerns among traders that September, historically one of Bitcoin’s worst months, could bring additional losses.
The Bitcoin Price continues to fluctuate as global demand and investor sentiment shift daily. Despite seasonal headwinds and broken technical support levels, several analysts argue that Bitcoin may surprise skeptics with a rebound toward fresh highs before the year ends.
Many traders refresh charts frequently to check the Bitcoin Price Today before making decisions. Market data shows that September has consistently been a challenging month for Bitcoin. Since 2013, the cryptocurrency has posted negative returns in eight of the last twelve Septembers, with an average monthly loss of 3.77%. Traders often refer to this recurring slump as the “September Effect.”
Analysts issue their Bitcoin Price Prediction based on market patterns and investor behavior. The phenomenon isn’t unique to Bitcoin. Traditional markets also suffer in September. The S&P 500 index, for instance, has averaged a return of -1.20% per month since 1928.
Analysts attribute this to institutional investors rebalancing portfolios, harvesting tax losses, and reducing exposure after summer rallies. For Bitcoin, which often trades in sync with broader risk assets, this pattern can trigger additional selling pressure.
Bitcoin’s recent price action indicates weakness after it slipped below the $110,000 support zone. Currently, bears are defending resistance near $110,500, leaving BTC vulnerable to further downside.
Key support levels to watch include:
$108,000 (immediate support)
$107,400 (short-term major support)
$106,500 (next defensive zone)
$105,500-$104,000 (reinforced by the 200-day moving average)
$100,000 (psychological floor)
If Bitcoin fails to hold above $105,000, analysts warn of a possible retest of $100,000. Still, many technical models suggest the downside may be capped around that level, framing dips as potential accumulation opportunities rather than a deeper bear trend.
Also Read: When Would Bitcoin Reach $1 Million?
Despite its grim track record, Bitcoin could defy the ‘Red September’ curse this year. Analyst Rekt Fencer highlights similarities between 2017 and 2025 cycles. Both saw August declines followed by a September recovery that ultimately set the stage for parabolic rallies. In 2017, Bitcoin jumped from a September base to hit $20,000 by year’s end.
Using charts and indicators, Bitcoin Technical Analysis helps identify support and resistance levels. Currently, Bitcoin is consolidating between $107,000 and $110,000, a level that previously acted as resistance and now serves as support, a classic bullish reversal sign in technical analysis.
Momentum indicators also show hidden strength. Although BTC’s price has dropped, its Relative Strength Index (RSI) has not fallen as sharply, signaling a hidden bullish divergence.
Reviewing Bitcoin Historical Trends reveals how past cycles influence current market expectations. Institutional behavior is sending conflicting signals. On one hand, whale addresses holding over 100 BTC have surged to a record high of 19,130, suggesting long-term holders are aggressively buying the dip.
On the other hand, Bitcoin ETFs saw $751 million in outflows in August, reflecting caution among institutional investors managing shorter time horizons.
This divergence highlights a battle between speculative selling and strategic accumulation. If whales continue to stockpile BTC, they may absorb supply pressure, stabilizing prices before the next rally.
Another factor working in Bitcoin’s favor is the weakening US dollar. Currency traders expect the US dollar to decline by another 8% this year, as slowing economic growth and anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts weigh on sentiment.
Historically, Bitcoin has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar Index (DXY), and the current 52-week correlation has dropped to -0.25, its weakest in two years.
Analysts believe Fed cuts later this year could unleash significant liquidity into risk assets, with Bitcoin and altcoins among the biggest beneficiaries.
“Two rate cuts mean trillions will flow into the crypto market,” noted analyst Ash Crypto, predicting a parabolic rally where altcoins could surge 10x to 50x in the next phase of the cycle.
Forecasts for September remain divided:
Bearish View: Some analysts expect Bitcoin to close the month around $108,000, with downside risk extending toward $100,000 if the support levels break.
Bullish View: Others, including Fundstrat’s Tom Lee, argue that BTC could rebound to $120,000 in September and end the year near $200,000.
The bullish case relies on shifts in Fed policy, whale accumulation, and the repetition of 2017’s cycle dynamics.
Also Read: Will Bitcoin Rise to $118K or Drop to $105K First? A Dive into Market Signals
As of September 2, 2025, Bitcoin trades at $110,383, 11.6% below August’s all-time high of $124,533. History suggests further weakness is possible, with a 9.4% decline toward $100,000 not out of the question. Yet, underlying accumulation trends, macroeconomic tailwinds, and bullish technical divergences point to resilience.
Whether September delivers another ‘red month’ or a surprise rebound, it’s clear that Bitcoin is entering a decisive phase that could set the tone for the rest of 2025.
1. Why is September usually weak for Bitcoin?
Historically, the BTC price drops in September as investors rebalance their portfolios, harvest tax losses, and reduce exposure.
2. What are Bitcoin’s key support levels in September 2025?
Support lies at $108K, $107.4K, $106.5K, with the significant backing between $105K-$100K.
3. Could Bitcoin drop below $100K this month?
Analysts see $ 100,000 as the worst-case floor, with most expecting declines to remain capped above that level.
4. What factors could boost Bitcoin prices in September?
Dollar weakness, Fed rate cuts, and whale accumulation could drive Bitcoin back toward $ 120,000.
5. What is the bullish prediction for Bitcoin in 2025?
Fundstrat’s Tom Lee projects Bitcoin could hit $120K in September and approach $200K by year-end.
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