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Ripple unlocked 1 billion XRP in January 2026, but historical trends suggest only a fraction will enter circulation after re-locking.
Exchange balances are falling while US spot XRP ETFs continue to see steady inflows, tightening liquid supply.
Regulatory clarity and Ripple’s infrastructure-focused strategy are shifting XRP’s narrative beyond short-term speculation.
As 2026 begins, on January 1st, Ripple released 1 billion XRP, as part of its monthly scheduled release from escrow. At a price near $1.88, the number translates to roughly $1.9 billion, attracting market attention. However, a closer look at historical patterns, on-chain data, and institutional flows suggests the real market impact may be far more measured than the numbers suggest.
Ripple's escrow arrangement was established back in 2017, when the firm decided to secure 55 billion XRP through escrows on the XRP Ledger (XRPL).
One billion XRP is set to be released on the first day of each month under the contract terms, establishing a predictable and transparent supply schedule.
Unlocking XRP does not mean all tokens are immediately added to circulation.
Historically, Ripple has set aside 60% to 80% of each monthly release, and only a small portion has been used for operational expenses, ecosystem development, or liquidity provision to On-Demand Liquidity (ODL) partners.
In December 2025, almost 70% of the total unlocked XRP was returned to escrow, resulting in an estimated net supply of 300-400 million XRP.
If January 2026 is the same as December, the actual increase in circulating supply would be much less than 1 billion XRP.
Blockchain tracker Whale Alert reported that the January unlock was executed smoothly and on schedule, split into multiple tranches. This aligns with Ripple’s long-standing operational consistency.
Historically, Ripple’s actual XRP usage after unlocks has remained conservative. If the company only deploys 200-300 million XRP this month and relocks the remainder into new, long-dated escrows, the net inflation effect would amount to less than 0.5% of the total circulating supply, a level markets have repeatedly absorbed without major dislocations.
While escrow releases add supply, other metrics point in the opposite direction. Based on on-chain data, the amount of XRP stored on centralized exchanges has decreased significantly, from roughly 4 billion a year ago to less than 1.5 billion today.
When exchange balances are decreasing, it usually indicates that long-term investors are becoming more confident in their holdings and that there is less immediate selling pressure.
According to Sosovalue, the US spot XRP ETFs saw net inflows for more than 30 days in a row, with $15.55 million on December 30, 2025, bringing total EETFXRP assets to around $1.27 billion.
This continuous inflow of funds implies that demand from institutions may be significantly eating into the supply from the unlocks that occur every month.
Also Read: XRP ETFs Hit $1 Billion: What’s Next for XRP Price in 2026?
The unlock in January aligns with the increasing regulatory clarity in the US. The CLARITY Act, anticipated to enter the Senate markup in January 2026, aims to set the boundaries for banks and financial institutions regarding their interactions with digital assets such as XRP.
Clearer regulations might affect Ripple's escrow approach. It may reduce the need for aggressive re-locking in the event of greater regulatory certainty. On the other hand, if the situation remains uncertain, it could lead Ripple to keep more XRP off the market.
Regardless of the scenario, the escrow structure provides the company with flexibility without causing significant changes in supply.
XRP's storyline had changed considerably by the end of 2025. Ripple not only developed cross-border payments but also built up an entire financial infrastructure for institutions, including stablecoin issuance, custody solutions, and settlement layers on XRPL.
In this context, escrow unlocks increasingly resemble deployment signals rather than speculative events.
Also Read: BitMine Buys $97.6M Ethereum as Year-End Tax Selling Pressures Prices
The past locking behavior, the decrease in exchange balances, and the steady inflow of ETFs indicate that the total effect on the supply is not concerning and thus manageable.
The major conclusion for investors is that XRP's price behavior in 2026 might rely less on escrow news and more on institutional adoption, regulatory clarity, and real-world use cases.
1. Does unlocking 1 billion XRP mean all tokens hit the market at once?
No, Ripple historically re-locks 60–80% of unlocked XRP, releasing only a limited portion into circulation.
2. How much XRP is likely to enter circulation in January 2026?
Based on past behavior, the net increase could be around 200-400 million XRP, not the full 1 billion.
3. Why are falling exchange balances important for XRP price?
Lower exchange balances usually indicate reduced selling pressure and stronger long-term holding behavior.
4. How do XRP ETFs affect supply dynamics?
Consistent ETF inflows absorb available XRP supply, helping offset new tokens released from escrow.
5. What matters most for XRP’s price in 2026?
Institutional adoption, regulatory clarity, and real-world utility are likely to outweigh escrow-related headlines.
