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Ether supply on exchanges has sunk to the lowest level since 2015, shifting the conversation around Ethereum’s next move. Analysts now focus on shrinking exchange balances, growing treasury allocations, and how those trends interact with the recent Fusaka upgrade. Many in the market view this mix of tighter liquid supply and fresh network capacity as a key backdrop for ETH’s long-term price path.
Glassnode data shows Ether balances on centralized exchanges are close to 8.7% of the circulating supply. Levels hovered near 8.8% on Sunday after a 43% decline since early July. Digital asset treasury buying began to accelerate around that time.
More ETH is now placed in staking, restaking, long-term custody, and layer 2 ecosystems. Analysts argue that these destinations rarely feed short-term selling. The analysts noted this increases the chance of a future supply squeeze if demand rises again.
Bitcoin’s exchange share remains higher, around 14.7%, underscoring Ethereum’s faster shift away from liquid trading pools. On-chain flows point toward structural tightening rather than panic.
On Balance Volume recently broke through resistance even as price met rejection. Some traders view that divergence as underlying buying pressure. Ethereum price performance against Bitcoin has also drawn interest after the ETH BTC pair broke its downtrend line.
The Fusaka hard fork went live this week. It combines the Fulu consensus layer with the Osaka execution layer. Developers designed the change to move and store data more efficiently while keeping Ethereum’s decentralization model intact.
A feature called PeerDAS changes how the network handles data. Teams estimate that this can increase data capacity several times. More room for rollups to batch transactions could potentially lower user fees.
Fusaka also introduces tools such as the R1 curve and pre-confirmations to improve day-to-day usage. Wallet actions should feel quicker and more predictable, especially for mobile users who deal with congestion and timing issues. The shift could reinforce the impact of shrinking exchange supply if new demand appears.
Treasury buyer BitMine added another $150 million in Ether this week. The purchase forms part of a long-term accumulation plan. The firm aims to control up to 5% of ETH’s circulating supply. It frames its strategy as a bet on Ethereum’s role in finance and digital infrastructure.
On the price chart, Ether trades near the $3,050 zone after reclaiming support above $3,000. The $3,050 to $3,150 band now acts as a key area that bulls want to confirm as support.
If buyers defend that region, analysts point to $3,650 to $3,700 as the next resistance cluster. A failure to hold could send ETH back toward $2,630, with stronger support near $2,400 if downside pressure returns.
Also Read: ETH Touched $3,000, But Traders are Still Skeptical, Here's Why
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