.png){kind=logo}
Cardano (ADA) continues to struggle for stability as prices hover near $0.63. The token trades below its key Fibonacci retracement level of 0.618 at $0.6731, signaling ongoing bearish control. Daily trading ranges have tightened, recording a low of $0.6230 and a high of $0.6368, reflecting reduced volatility.
On Binance, ADA’s structure remains bearish, slipping beneath a descending support line that once provided resilience. The recent chart pattern reveals that momentum has shifted firmly to the sellers, pushing ADA into a narrow consolidation range. Could this prolonged squeeze signal a deeper correction ahead?
A clear Fair Value Gap (FVG) is observed in the chart between a range of around 0.60 and 0.74. This area was used as a liquidity pocket when ADA was on a rally between June and July. It is now in the phase of resistance, which curtails advancement. A decline below this area represented a change of mood, with lower bids being experienced around $0.6731.
The next key test is now the 0.786 level of Fibonacci at 0.5772. Any breach that is less than it can lead to falls to levels as low as $0.4552. The analysts note that the area is the make-or-break point of ADA bulls. In case of the continuity of the selling pressure, the following Fibonacci extension at $0.2190 might become a remote downside target.
ADA is technically under 34.27 with a Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 40.13. This trend indicates that ADA has entered the oversold zone and is yet to record an apparent recovery. Traditionally, the rallies of ADA only commence when RSI falls below 30, implying that the decline might continue.
On-chain data reveals a split among large holders. Santiment data shows wallets holding between 1 million ADA and 10 million ADA sold around 40 million tokens in the last week. Overall, whales unloaded about 350 million ADA, weighing on market sentiment. At the same time, accumulation activity from other large wallets reached between 140 million ADA and 200 million ADA, reflecting uncertainty in investor conviction.
Price action between $0.65 and $0.70 remains choppy due to this split. The tug-of-war between sellers and accumulators is creating a fragile consolidation phase, limiting directional clarity. Such conditions often precede volatile swings, particularly as liquidity thins near major support zones.
The open interests of ADA dropped by 2.12% to reach $669.9 million in derivatives. There were long liquidations of $1.13 million, which are far more than short liquidations of $187,000. This disproportion suggests that those who were bullish traders made greater losses during the recent correction.
In the shorter time scale, the four-hour chart shows that there is a growing falling wedge. A confirmed breakout of more than $0.74 would turn short-term momentum, but in the meantime, technicals are split. RSI is close to 37, whereas Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) ranges between 0.12 and 0.15 with light inflows, but not enough to offset the mass selling.
Beyond market charts, the ecosystem is resilient. The community treasury has been increased to over a billion ADA, which is worth close to a billion dollars. It is governed by fees and staking rewards and operated through Project Catalyst, which funds the tools of the ecosystem, DeFi projects, and infrastructure. This decentralized treasury keeps growing without venture capital financing, and it helps Cardano to be sustainable in the long term even when price pressure remains high.
The market structure of Cardano is still weak because ADA is trading below the Fibonacci level of 0.6731, which indicates longer bearish momentum. The outflows of whales and the diminishing open interest create doubt, and the indicators of RSI levels are close to the oversold state. The gap between the Fair Value Gap of 0.60 and 0.74 keeps the gains capped and the supportive level of 0.5772.
