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Bitcoin remains dominant, but Ethereum’s staking and network growth signal rising strength.
ETF flows and regulatory approvals will decide Q4 momentum.
Ethereum could outperform Bitcoin if spot ETH ETFs gain traction and inflows rise.
Will Ethereum (ETH) overtake Bitcoin (BTC) in market dominance during Q4? Well, it mostly hinges on a mix of price action, institutional flows, product availability (ETFs), on-chain health, and macro liquidity. Recent market behavior offers a clearer picture of the odds.
Bitcoin's momentum is dominant, but structural changes in Ethereum are increasing the chance of outperformance over short periods. The following analysis breaks down the key signals that matter for any near-term shift in dominance.
Currently, the world’s largest cryptocurrency by market value remains Bitcoin. Its price recently hovered around the $105,000–$107,000 range, and its market cap holds a large lead over all other digital assets.
By comparison, Ethereum is trading around the mid-$3,500 mark. That gap in price and market capitalization is significant and tends to reinforce Bitcoin’s default leadership position in the crypto market. Unless something changes materially, that gap provides a structural headwind for Ethereum to overtake Bitcoin in the short term.
Institutional capital has become a vital driver of the crypto market. Exchange-traded products (ETFs) provide a familiar vehicle for large investors to gain crypto exposure without directly holding coins.
Recently, Bitcoin-based ETFs have seen heavy flows. For example, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded about $240 million in inflows on a day in early November, marking a rebound after six straight days of outflows. On the flip side, data shows that in the past few weeks, Bitcoin ETF net flows were negative on many days, reflecting caution or rotation from crypto. One tracker shows cumulative outflows for Bitcoin ETFs of approximately $1,817 million in a recent period.
In contrast, Ethereum does not yet have the same breadth of approved, widely used spot ETFs in many regions. The faster and larger the inflows into Ethereum-specific products, the greater the chance that Ethereum could close the performance gap with Bitcoin. As of now, however, the ETF channel remains more firmly in Bitcoin’s favour.
Also Read: Bitcoin Bounces Back: Is This the Perfect Dip to Buy?
Ethereum’s technical fundamentals are improving meaningfully. One crucial metric is the amount of ETH locked up in staking: by September 2025, the total staked ETH was estimated to be between 35 million and 37 million coins, representing approximately 29 to 31 percent of the total supply.
Earlier in the year, at the start of 2025, staked ETH stood near 34 million coins. The growth in staking strengthens Ethereum’s supply dynamics; coins locked in staking cannot be easily traded, reducing available liquid supply.
Moreover, the rise of liquid staking derivatives (LSDs) means more capital is tied into staking ecosystems rather than simply sitting idle. That improved supply sink and usage context gives Ethereum a structural tailwind compared to many other crypto-assets.
The broader macroeconomic backdrop and risk appetite are key to how both Bitcoin and Ethereum perform. Historically, Bitcoin has often been viewed as a “digital gold,” whereas Ethereum has tended to act more like a growth or application-layer asset, with higher beta and higher risk-reward.
When risk appetite is strong and inflows are abundant, Ethereum can outperform as it offers higher upside; when liquidity tightens or investors retreat to safer assets, Bitcoin tends to fare better.
Recent ETF outflows and rotation between assets reflect how sensitive this sector remains to macro cues (such as interest-rate moves, dollar strength, and geopolitical risk). Thus, for Ethereum to overtake Bitcoin in Q4, the macro environment would need to remain favourable for risk assets rather than shift into defence.
From a market-structure perspective, the ratio of ETH to BTC behaves like any cross-asset pair: if ETH begins to outperform BTC, the ETH/BTC ratio will rise. However, for Ethereum to truly overtake Bitcoin in dominance (whether measured in market cap or flows) requires sustained momentum rather than a brief spike.
That means multiple weeks (or months) of higher Ethereum inflows, tightening supply, and usage growth while either Bitcoin demand stalls or shifts away. Simple momentum spikes or short-term trades are unlikely to constitute a regime change. The technical setup requires a constellation of favourable signals aligning simultaneously.
Several trigger events would increase the probability of Ethereum overtaking or strongly challenging Bitcoin in Q4. One would be the approval and launch of spot Ethereum ETFs in major markets, which would open institutional access and likely drive substantial inflows.
Another would be sustained positive net flows into Ethereum-related investment vehicles (such as staking, derivatives, and ETFs), while Bitcoin sees a relative slowdown or even an outflow. On-chain usage metrics for Ethereum would need to show sustained growth: higher transaction volume, more decentralized applications, more staking lock-up, and wider ecosystem adoption.
Finally, the macro regime must stay supportive of risk assets: ample liquidity, favourable monetary conditions, and positive investor sentiment rather than a shift toward defensive positioning.
The current data suggests that while Ethereum price and fundamentals are improving (notably in staking and on-chain adoption), Bitcoin retains its dominance in terms of institutional flows and product availability.
For example, Bitcoin ETF flows have recently shown large net outflows in some periods (such as nearly $1.8 billion outflow in a recent snapshot) but also rapid inflows in others (such as $240 million in a single day). In contrast, Ethereum has fewer publicly tracked large-scale vehicles and is waiting on the broader ETF rollout.
Meanwhile, staking and usage metrics for Ethereum are strong: roughly 35–37 million ETH staked, about 29–31 % of supply. These supply-side dynamics are positive for Ethereum. The result is that Ethereum is positioned for potential outperformance, but the hurdle to outright leadership remains high given Bitcoin’s entrenched scale and product ecosystem.
Also Read: What is Ethereum's Worst-Case Scenario According to Crypto Analysts?
Given all these factors, the chance that Ethereum overtakes Bitcoin in market dominance during Q4 is rather low under current conditions. Bitcoin’s lead is large, and institutions continue to favour vehicles built around it.
However, the probability that Ethereum outperforms Bitcoin during the quarter is interestingly higher, particularly if the aforementioned triggers play out (spot ETH ETF approval, strong inflows, staking growth, and favourable macro conditions).
The focus should therefore be on monitoring key events: regulatory developments around Ethereum products, weekly or daily flows into crypto vehicles, changes in staking and supply-lock metrics for Ethereum, and the overall liquidity/risk‐sentiment regime in markets.
A convergence of multiple positive signals would raise the odds of Ethereum gaining ground. Without them, Bitcoin is likely to retain its dominance, and Ethereum may simply log strong performance without overtaking.
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