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Historical BTC cycles suggest 2025 could deliver a 120% rally.
On-chain data shows whales are accumulating while retail is holding.
Spot ETF inflows and Realized Cap are hitting new highs, reinforcing bullish momentum.
Bitcoin (BTC) is holding strong above the $100,000 threshold, despite recent turbulence caused by geopolitical shocks. The world’s largest cryptocurrency recently corrected from a high of around $111,000 to just above $104,000, triggered in part by rising tensions in the Middle East. But while short-term fluctuations dominate headlines, longer-term data may be telling a much more bullish story.
According to multiple on-chain analysts and historical models, Bitcoin could be on track to reach $205,000 by the end of 2025, assuming the current cycle unfolds in line with previous ones.
One of the more compelling arguments for a breakout in 2025 comes from the Bitcoin Yearly Percentage Trend, a model first highlighted by CryptoQuant contributor Carmelo Aleman. This tool examines BTC’s annual price behavior dating back to 2011 and reveals a consistent pattern: three years of gains followed by one year of consolidation.
This trend perfectly mirrors Bitcoin’s well-documented four-year halving cycle, in which block rewards are halved approximately every 210,000 blocks. These events have historically triggered multi-year bull runs, culminating in a parabolic peak around the third year of the cycle.
With 2023 and 2024 already closing positively, 2025 would represent the third and typically most explosive year of this phase. Based on this model, Bitcoin could deliver a 120% gain from its January 2025 opening price of $93,226, potentially reaching $205,097 by year’s end.
Supporting this outlook is historical data from the previous halving cycle. Following the May 2020 halving, Bitcoin surged 750% over the next four years, peaking near $69,000 in late 2021.
A similar percentage rally from this cycle's lows could project BTC prices into the $400,000 - $466,000 range, although diminishing returns may moderate such extremes.
Technical indicators also suggest that Bitcoin is poised for a breakout. According to Aleman, the last major rally didn’t truly take off until Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) crossed into overbought territory (above 70).
Currently, Bitcoin’s RSI remains below that level, indicating that the next bullish leg may still be in its early stages.
This suggests an opportunity for accumulation before momentum accelerates, and history shows that once RSI breaks past 70, sharp upward moves often follow.
A critical component of this cycle’s strength is the growing institutional adoption of Bitcoin. Spot Bitcoin ETFs approved in early 2024 have opened the floodgates for traditional capital.
According to data from SoSoValue, spot ETFs now hold over $131 billion in assets under management, with more than $1.46 billion in inflows recorded over just five trading sessions.
This trend marks a dramatic shift from earlier cycles, where institutional exposure was minimal. The continued flow of capital into regulated investment vehicles indicates rising confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term value proposition.
Also Read: How the Middle East Conflict Will Disrupt Bitcoin’s Price Trends
Bitcoin’s on-chain metrics further support the bullish outlook. According to data from CryptoQuant, both whale and retail inflows to exchanges like Binance are at cycle lows, indicating that investors are unlikely to sell anytime soon. Instead, long-term holders are withdrawing coins from exchanges, a classic precursor to supply shocks.
For instance, on June 16, whales moved 4,500 BTC out of Binance, an action historically linked to price increases. Meanwhile, stablecoin inflows exceeding $400 million in a single week indicate that buyers are preparing to deploy dry powder for a potential surge.
Further confirming the cycle’s health, Realized Cap, the total value of all coins based on their last moved price, is currently printing new all-time highs. This implies that coins are being accumulated and held at higher price points, a hallmark of a strong market foundation.
While the signals are overwhelmingly bullish, it’s important to consider potential headwinds:
Macroeconomic uncertainty, such as new regulatory crackdowns or worsening geopolitical tensions, could introduce volatility and derail short-term price action.
Short-term holders have been selling into recent price dips, which could temporarily stall momentum.
A delayed RSI breakout or unexpected ETF outflows could limit near-term upside.
Nevertheless, the long-term trajectory remains intact, especially given the structural rhythm Bitcoin tends to follow across cycles.
Bitcoin appears to be approaching the climactic stage of its current four-year cycle. A confluence of historical price trends, ETF inflows, bullish on-chain behavior, and macro demand paints a picture of an asset on the verge of a breakout.
If the past is any guide, $205,000 by the end of 2025 is not just plausible, it’s within reach. Investors with a long-term perspective may view 2025 as one of the last windows of opportunity before Bitcoin reaches the peak of this cycle.
