Bitcoin Price Prediction: Reasons why BTC is poised for a return to $50K

Bitcoin Price Prediction: Reasons why BTC is poised for a return to $50K

The Bitcoin price is trading at $45,054 as of 3:30 a.m. EST, down 1.3% over the last 24 hours, as the crypto market waits for the Securities and Exchange Commission's (SEC) decision on spot Bitcoin ETFs with bated breath.

BTC began the new year with a bullish bias, rising above the key $45,000 level on Jan. 2. The big crypto is up 7% so far in 2024. The period of high volatility in the crypto market appears to be gathering momentum with a bull run expected in 2024.

The Bitcoin market cap is $0.889 trillion, up 6% over the last three days. The increase has been accompanied by leaps in the trading volume.

The main factors supporting the bullish outlook for Bitcoin in 2024 are the rising hopes of the first-ever spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) entering the market and the Bitcoin halving event which is expected in April.

A spot Bitcoin ETF acceptance could scale BTC higher

Discussions surrounding Bitcoin ETFs continue to gain momentum in the crypto space. According to Bloomberg's ETF analyst James Seyffart, the chances of a spot BTC ETF approval by Jan. 10 – which is the final statutory deadline for the U.S. SEC to decide on some of the applications – is 90%.

If approved, such an ETF could attract more institutional investors into the space and positively impact not only BTC but also the prices of other cryptocurrencies.

A spot Bitcoin ETF approval could attract a whole new wave of institutional investors, according to Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) president John Palmer.

In an interview with Bloomberg TV on Jan. 2 Palmer said that an approval will open the door to a new wave of institutional and, eventually, retail interest in Bitcoin derivatives.

Meanwhile, MicroStrategy executive chairman Michael Saylor has begun the process of selling $216 million worth of his shares in his firm MicroStrategy, previously stating part of it would be used to buy more Bitcoin.

This was revealed in a Jan. 2 filing with the SEC, where the Bitcoin advocate disclosed that he had already started selling the 315,000 stock options awards he first received in April 2014. The awarded stock options expire on April 30, 2024.

On Dec. 27, MicroStrategy purchased an additional 14,620 Bitcoin for $615 million at an average price of $42,110 per coin. The purchase saw MicroStrategy's total Bitcoin holdings grow to a staggering 189,150 Bitcoin — worth some $8.5 billion at current prices.

As in previous cycles, this continued institutional adoption is a potential indicator that the flagship crypto is yet to reach its peak.

Bitcoin halving backs Bitcoin's potential

Bitcoin's historical bull runs tend to follow four-year cycles, often spurred by events like the supply reward halving, which reduces the rate at which new BTC is created and earned by miners.

The next halving event will be within less than 180 days from now, and traditionally, bull runs can start months before the event and continue until the price of Bitcoin reaches a new all-time high.

In fact, $100,000 BTC price predictions are also becoming increasingly commonplace now that the halving is less than six months away.

Technical indicators also reflect Bitoin's bullish sentiment

The Bitcoin price broke above the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $27,160 on Oct. 23. The pioneer cryptocurrency has since rallied 67% to the current price.

Buyers have now set their target on the $50,000 psychological level — an expected average 11% gain from the current price. Technical traders would look to tap these key levels before anticipating a reversal.

The relative strength indicator (RSI) for the King crypto has moved into positive territory, edging close to the 65-point resistance, reinforcing the dominance the bulls have in the market. The EMAs are also facing upward, an indication that the market conditions still favor the upside.

BTC/USD Daily Chart

BTC/USD Daily Chart. Source: TradingView

Furthermore, if buyers build support above the $45 trillion mark with positive volumes, the three-month-long uptrend could extend into toward the November 2021 peak of around $69,000.

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