Bitcoin Nears $80,000 Again: Why It’s Rising and What Experts Warn Next?

Bitcoin (BTC) is once again approaching the $80,000 mark, fueled by institutional buying and the robustness of on-chain activity. At press time, BTC is trading at $77,848.92 with 0.38% decline in the last 24 hours.

Institutional Demand and Macro Sentiment Drive Rally

The recent upswing has been backed by the increase in the ceasefire by two weeks between the US and Iran, which renewed risk appetite in the global markets. Gerry O'Shea, the head of global market insights at Hashdex, says the rise is definitely due to the ceasefire extension and a renewed institutional uptake.

According to SoSoValue, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $223.21 million in inflows on April 23. This marks the 8th consecutive session of inflows totaling $2.096 billion, and monthly inflows stood at $2.43 billion. 

Whale Accumulation and Supply Dynamics

Bitfinex analysts note that the wallets that contain over 1,000 BTC gained 270,000 BTC within the last 30 days, the highest since 2013. Meanwhile, exchange reserves have fallen to a seven-year low, which signals a tightening supply.

Corporate accumulation provides support. Recently, Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) has bought 34,164 BTC worth $2.54 billion, which strengthens the demand at lower prices.

Bitcoin also resumed its correlation with equities. Its 90-day rolling correlation with the Nasdaq-100 rose from 0.49 in early October to 0.58 as of April 21. That trend suggests strength in stocks may be providing additional support for the rally.

Also Read: US Military Confirms Bitcoin Node Use for Cybersecurity Testing

Technical Structure

Bitcoin surges 4% so far this week. Bitcoin is trading close to $78,000 on Friday, maintaining a bullish bias as it holds above the 50-day and 100-day exponential moving averages (EMAs) at around $72,807 and $75,513, respectively. 

BTC has also broken above the parallel channel near $75,680. The upper boundary of the channel has turned into near-term support, while remaining below the 200-day EMA around $82,309. 

Momentum remains positive, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart at 63, which stands in the bullish territory, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line holding above the signal line, suggesting buyers retain control despite proximity to overhead Fibonacci levels. 

On the upside, immediate resistance lies at the 50% Fibonacci retracement at $78,962, followed by the psychological $80,000 level; a sustained break above these levels would expose the 200-day EMA near $82,309. 

On the downside, initial support is around the former channel top at $75,680, followed by $72,807, reinforcing the bullish structure.

Profit-Taking Risks and Market Psychology

Jim Ferraioli of Schwab Center of Financial Research indicated that an average ETF investor has a cost basis of about $83,000, as secondary market buyers have an average of $78,000.

It would be reasonable for investors to sell at such levels, he said, since many traders will be leaving positions when they become even.

CryptoQuant points out that the realized price of ETF investors is around $76,400, whereas short-term whales are around $79,600, which forms a convergence zone where distribution pressure can be observed.

Conclusion

The $80,000 level remains a critical hurdle; the recovery of Bitcoin is a positive indication of the maturity that the digital assets sector has achieved.

However, a breakout will be sustained on the condition of further inflows of ETFs, geopolitical stability, and increasing market liquidity.