Merifund Capital: Starlink Growth Fuels SpaceX IPO

SpaceX’s plan for a potential 2026 flotation is sharpening the focus on Starlink’s recurring revenues, subscriber growth and capital intensity, with banks circling a record raise and institutions weighing valuation, regulation and governance.

Investor scrutiny is intensifying around SpaceX’s path towards a stock market debut, and Merifund Capital Management’s latest briefing tracks what it means for global capital markets as expectations build for a listing window in 2026.

Deal talk in banking and institutional circles centres on proceeds above $33.5 billion at admission, a level that would clear Saudi Aramco’s $25.6 billion benchmark raise set in 2019. Timing is still conditional, with mid-to-late 2026 viewed as plausible and an extension into 2027 remaining possible if market conditions tighten or operational targets move.

Valuation sets the terms of the debate. Advisory models point to an equity value above $1 trillion, with more optimistic scenarios reaching $1.7 trillion at flotation. Secondary-market transactions over the preceding quarter imply a valuation nearer $893.1 billion, leaving public investors to judge how much premium to pay for scale and resilience. Anthony Saunders, Director of Private Equity, frames the issue as “public markets pay for repeatable cashflows, not spectacle”, a shorthand for why Starlink is doing most of the heavy lifting in valuation discussions.

Over the 15-month period from September 2024 to mid-December, Starlink’s active subscriber base rises from 4 million to 8 million, while network traffic doubles over the preceding 12 months as capacity expands and latency improves. As of mid-December, the service operates in more than 150 markets and is supported by roughly 6,000 satellites in orbit, a footprint that keeps widening as regulators approve additional jurisdictions.

Merifund Capital Management’s analysis also points to a revenue mix that is broadening alongside subscriber growth. Over the most recent four quarters, enterprise agreements contribute roughly 35% of Starlink revenue, reflecting demand from airlines rolling out in-flight connectivity, shipping groups upgrading maritime communications and mobile network operators extending coverage into remote regions. Saunders describes this shift as “utility-style demand that steadies revenue through the cycle”, a point investors tend to reward with higher confidence in forward forecasts.

Over the 12 months to December 2024, Starlink generates $9.1 billion of revenue, representing more than 60% of SpaceX’s $14.6 billion turnover for the same period, based on disclosures and industry estimates collated in the briefing. Improving utilisation and scale efficiencies strengthen the argument that subscriptions can help fund capital-intensive development without forcing repeated equity fundraising immediately after listing.

SpaceX’s launch franchise still anchors credibility, even as investors focus on subscriptions. Over the preceding 12 months to mid-December, Falcon 9 accounts for 52% of global orbital launches and 84% of satellite deployments. Starship remains the longer-dated option in valuation frameworks, with regulatory filings seeking to expand the permitted launch rate from 5 to 25 flights on an annual basis at the Texas site. Saunders sees launch cadence as “a moat that earns a premium when execution stays predictable”, while also noting that capital intensity remains a reality investors must price on admission.

Access broadens once an offering is live, but the route to stable trading is unlikely to be smooth. Private shares change hands through accredited channels, with secondary prints around $313.4 per share over the preceding quarter, and public market participation would expose the stock to daily sentiment as well as operational milestones. Concentrated control, heightened regulatory scrutiny and the capital demands of research-heavy programmes remain the core issues institutions test as they size risk budgets over the first year of public trading.

If the flotation lands in the expected window, it becomes a test case for the investability of commercial space at scale, and Merifund Capital Management expects the first 12 months of public trading to be defined by how quickly Starlink’s subscription economics translate into durable cash generation. The central question is whether the recurring revenue base matures into a platform that funds expansion while protecting shareholder returns, and whether governance keeps pace with a business that straddles telecoms, defence-linked work and frontier manufacturing.

About Merifund Capital Management

Founded in 2010, Merifund Capital Management Pte. Ltd. (UEN: 201024554E) is a Singapore-headquartered hedge fund manager. It runs traditional long-only asset and portfolio management mandates alongside long/short equity, global macro, event-driven and systematic trading strategies. The firm uses derivatives selectively to optimise market opportunities while prioritising capital preservation, liquidity and prudent risk management. ESG considerations are integrated in line with rigorous global sustainability standards. It serves accredited investors, family offices, foundations and endowments, and is expanding its offering set with the aim of supporting retail investor access. Further insights are available at https://merifund.com/insights. Media enquiries: Tao Yang at media@merifund.com or https://merifund.com.