Will Bitcoin Really Explode Past $90,000 and Hit $126,000?

Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and CIO of Maelstrom, believes that Bitcoin (BTC) is preparing for another massive breakout cycle. Hayes thinks BTC has already reached its long-term bottom around $60,000 earlier in the year, and is poised to reclaim the record high near $126,000 given the improved liquidity globally.

BTC recovered around 31% from its February low of approximately $62,800, trading close to $81,000 after briefly moving above $82,000 this week. Hayes says that the next major trigger will emerge once BTC reclaims the $90,000 level.

Why Hayes Thinks Bitcoin Could Rally Sharply

According to Hayes, if the asset moves above $90,000, a strong short squeeze could take place in the options market. The traders offering to sell call options with higher strike prices will have to buy BTC when the price goes up, thus gaining additional momentum for the bull market.

"Bitcoin bottomed earlier this year at $60,000, and with a tailwind of trillions of dollars and yuan yet to be created at its back, retaking the $126,000 is a foregone conclusion," Hayes wrote.

Hayes thinks the economic environment is very conducive to BTC and other risk assets at the moment. He identified two key inflationary factors behind the liquidity expansion globally: spending on AI infrastructure and geopolitical tensions.

AI Spending and War Driving Liquidity Expansion

Hayes says the race for capital investments associated with the development of artificial intelligence (AI) is the first catalyst. He said that the US and China are both boosting their financial support for AI infrastructure, which is pushing central banks and commercial lending institutions to grow their credit creation.

"There will be vastly more units of fiat tomorrow than today, and the rate of change is accelerating due to rapidly increasing yearly AI and electrification CAPEX expenditures," Hayes said. 

He added that war is inherently inflationary and that ongoing geopolitical tensions are no different.

Bitcoin Outperforming Traditional Assets

Since the geopolitical tensions increased earlier this year, BTC has already started to beat several traditional assets, Hayes said. His analysis reveals that BTC has moved much more quickly than gold and large US tech companies during that time.

BTC has surged over 30% from its lows in February, but gold prices have only increased about 2%.

Also Read: Why are Analysts Saying Bitcoin Could Fall to $40,000?

Altcoins Also Enter Focus

Additionally, Hayes disclosed a few altcoin stakes owned by Maelstrom, such as Hyperliquid's HYPE token, Zcash (ZEC), and NEAR Protocol. He pointed to NEAR's privacy-focused infrastructure and intent-based architecture, which he considers to be a major opportunity for the long-term.

Hayes noted, however, that potential political opposition to AI spending in the US or too much speculation around AI IPOs could ultimately dampen the crypto rally.

Hayes, however, remains bullish, despite the risks. “Close your eyes and press the button,” Hayes wrote, “It's a bull market.”

FAQs:

1. Why does Arthur Hayes believe Bitcoin could reach $126,000?

Arthur Hayes believes expanding global liquidity, AI infrastructure spending, and inflationary pressures from geopolitical tensions could push more capital into Bitcoin. He argues that BTC already bottomed near $60,000 and is entering a new bullish cycle.

2. Why is the $90,000 Bitcoin level important?

According to Hayes, a move above $90,000 could trigger a major short squeeze in the options market. Traders who sold high-strike call options may be forced to buy Bitcoin, accelerating upward momentum.

3. How has Bitcoin performed compared to gold in 2026?

Bitcoin has risen more than 30% from its February lows near $62,800, while gold has gained only around 2% during the same period. Hayes sees this as evidence that BTC is already outperforming traditional safe-haven assets.

4. Which altcoins is Arthur Hayes bullish on?

Hayes disclosed that Maelstrom currently holds positions in Hyperliquid (HYPE), Zcash (ZEC), and NEAR Protocol. He particularly highlighted NEAR’s privacy-focused infrastructure and intent-based architecture as long-term growth catalysts.

5. What risks could stop the Bitcoin rally?

Hayes warned that excessive speculation in AI-related IPOs or political opposition to AI spending in the US could weaken liquidity growth. Any slowdown in credit expansion or global risk appetite may negatively impact crypto markets.