When Will Bitcoin Price Recover?

Bitcoin (BTC) trades at $64,277.35 as of August 7, 2026, roughly 49% below its October 2025 all-time high of approximately $126,200. After a turbulent first half of the year that included a sharp June decline and a partial July rebound, the market has stabilized in a tight range. The CLARITY Act vote and ETF recovery could be the catalyst for BTC recovery.

CLARITY Act Vote  

Senate Majority Leader John Thune, speaking through a spokesperson, confirmed the floor vote has been delayed but said the measure is expected to be considered once the Senate returns after the August recess. 

Thune said Democrats remained opposed to holding a vote before the recess. “The Dems are insistent on no CLARITY vote… I worked with sponsors of the bill. Senator Lummis was great, and we’re getting that queued up first thing when we come back.”

The legislation already passed the House in 2025 by a 294-134 vote and cleared the Senate Banking Committee 15-9 in May 2026. It seeks to establish clear jurisdictional lines between the SEC and CFTC and provide a market-structure framework for digital assets. 

Also Read: Bitcoin Poised for a $75K Rally: See How?

ETF Inflows Recover  

According to SoSoValue data, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a total net inflow of $128.69 million yesterday. The Bitcoin Spot ETF with the highest net inflow yesterday was BlackRock's ETF IBIT, with a daily net inflow of $128.33 million. 

The Bitcoin Spot ETF with the highest net outflow yesterday was VanEck's ETF HODL, with a daily net outflow of $32.77 million. The total net asset value of Bitcoin Spot ETFs is $78.77 billion, with an ETF net asset ratio of 6.09%. The historical cumulative net inflow has reached $52.08 billion. This marks the fourth consecutive session of inflows totaling $754.69 million.

Technical Structure

Bitcoin has also previously bottomed out or made notable rallies in the September-October window after summer weakness. October could be a probable turning point as prices hover above $60,000-$62,000, and on-chain sentiment is near realized-price bottoms, with valuations on the rise and ETF interest returning. 

Bitcoin trades above $64,250 on Friday with a mild bearish near-term bias as BTC holds below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $64,584, followed by $66,928, the 100-day EMA and the 200-day EMA at $72,410.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stood at 51.88, which is relatively close to the neutral zone, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is near the zero level with a slightly negative value, suggesting lower bullish momentum. 

Immediate resistance is found at the 50-day EMA at $64,584, followed by the 100-day EMA at $66,928. 

On the downside, immediate support is seen near $64,004. A daily close below this level could increase the possibility of a deeper corrective phase. 

FAQs:

1. Why is Bitcoin trading below its all-time high?

Bitcoin is trading around 49% below its October 2025 peak, driven by macroeconomic uncertainty, reduced risk appetite, profit-taking, and tighter monetary conditions. Despite the correction, institutional demand has remained relatively resilient through spot ETFs.

2. How could the CLARITY Act affect Bitcoin's price?

If passed, the CLARITY Act could establish clearer regulatory rules for digital assets in the US by defining the roles of the SEC and CFTC. Greater regulatory certainty may encourage institutional participation and improve investor confidence.

3. Are Bitcoin ETF inflows a bullish signal?

Yes. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded four consecutive sessions of net inflows totaling nearly $755 million, indicating continued institutional interest. Sustained inflows often support market liquidity and can strengthen long-term price trends.

4. What technical levels should Bitcoin traders watch?

Bitcoin faces immediate resistance near the 50-day EMA around $64,584, followed by the 100-day EMA near $66,928. On the downside, $64,004 remains the key support level, with a break below potentially leading to further weakness.

5. When could Bitcoin begin its next recovery?

Historically, Bitcoin has often staged meaningful recoveries during the September-October period following weaker summer performance. Continued ETF inflows, improving on-chain metrics, and regulatory developments could act as catalysts if broader market conditions remain supportive.