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Bitcoin's recent showing has created extreme controversy among experts. Some are worried that a bear market is on the horizon, while others believe the bull run has life left in it. Along with Bitcoin's price swings, traders and analysts closely follow a number of key indicators to figure out what direction the market will go next.
The latest information from CryptoQuant indicates that investors are taking their Bitcoin out of derivative trading platforms and transferring it to spot exchanges. This is a sign that large investors are closing their risk exposure, which is generally an indicator of warning. Historically, such a move has led to market corrections.
The Inter-Exchange Flow Pulse (IFP) measure is also trending at an alarming level. When Bitcoin reached $58,000 in March 2021, IFP hit the highest level ever. However, at the recent peak of $109,000 in January 2024, IFP was much lower than it previously indicated. This unexpected trend clearly shows that strong money inflows are not powering the current Bitcoin bull run.
Despite such warning signals, some analysts are hopeful. CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju thinks that Bitcoin may fall to as low as $77,000 and continue to be on its long-term bull market course. According to him, current price fluctuations follow the pattern in the past and do not mean the bull run is over.
As per Ki Young Ju, the 30% price decrease may also align with Bitcoin's past market ecosystem. In the course of the bulls, Bitcoin has been used for high-grade corrections. They get diverted, but finally, they are making lone record highs. Plenty of investors take these breaks with a pinch of salt, and they think the growth will inevitably come in the long term.
The other major factor behind Bitcoin's bullish bias is the cost basis of U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) investors, which is approximately $89,000 and has been a strong support level since November 2024. Also, new Bitcoin whales (institutional investors) have the same net buy-in level, so it is a significant level to watch for in future price action.
The Realised Price for New Whales investors who bought Bitcoin within the last 155 days and possess over 1,000 BTC is $89,300. If Bitcoin declines below this, it could be a sign that the market is losing steam and may lead to further drops.
Another serious support line is the Realised Price of Miner Whales, a group of wallets owned by mining firms with more than 1,000 BTC. The current level of this is at $58,000. In the past, whenever Bitcoin dipped below this point, it marked the beginning of bear trends. The market might still be okay if Bitcoin can hold above this line.
The crypto market right now is under a lot of stress. The state of Bitcoin has been a bit frail, and consequently, investors are reconsidering their moves. Even so, the market adjustments are a natural part of the circulation of the virtual coins. They bring self-correcting and remove excessive speculation, resulting in a more robust market in the long run.
Bear markets don't have to be bad for Bitcoin's long-term well-being. They purify weaker ventures and over-expectations so the stage can be set for next-level expansion. Bitcoin historically bounces back after bear markets and goes to all-time highs again.
As Bitcoin is confronted with warning signals of a possible bearish trend, experts think the bull market can endure a major price adjustment. The important levels like the Realised Price of New Whales ($89,300) and Miner Whales ($58,000) will play a key role in deciding Bitcoin's direction going forward.
Investors should remain vigilant and closely monitor these critical levels. Whether Bitcoin enters a bear market or continues its upward trajectory, understanding these key metrics will help traders navigate the volatility of the cryptocurrency market.
