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Bitcoin currently trades at US$83,603 after experiencing volatility due to recent U.S. tariff implementations. Now that regulatory discussions and macroeconomic pressures have raised a doubt for investors. April might just bring the much-awaited relief based on historical precedent and calendar events.
Bitcoin has had an incredible performance in April over the past ten years, with an average return of +12.96%. This makes April the second-strongest month after November. Some of the more notable recent performances are the following:
April 2020 registered +34.26% returns as a pandemic recovery month
April 2022 recorded a drop of -17.3% in a wider market correction
April 2023 produced a small gain of +2.81%
The median April return of +5.04% further assures that it had a positive performance considering years with huge downtimes. This seasonal strength now promises some relief for the investors.
The pending SEC crypto regulation roundtable could provide the market with a healthy dose of clarity. Price reactions have moved both up and down to meet prior regulatory announcements. Crystal clear parameters might lift the burden of uncertainty that has been weighing on prices.
Technical analysis indicates that Bitcoin is approaching critical support levels situated around US$80,000. Some analysts have raised concerns about the possible countenance of a "death cross." Historically, however, this indicator tends to appear nearer the end of a downcycle than at its beginning.
Toronto's Consensus 2025 conference will have top industry stakeholders in attendance. Such events typically push the market upward in terms of sentiment and possibly trigger price movements via partnerships announced and investments committed.
Investors are advised to monitor the US$80,000 support level very closely. A break below it on a sustained basis may initiate a sell-off towards USD$71,000. A respectful defense of the level could lead towards a bounce back to resistance near USD$90,000.
In view of current volatility, dollar-cost averaging is advisable instead of any lump-sum investments. Breaking purchases down into units over the course of April on a weekly basis would diminish the risk of market entry timing. This way, investors might end up taking advantage of the historical upward trend of the month.
Keep an eye on Federal Reserve announcements with regard to interest rates. According to market analysts, should the Fed acknowledge a more accommodative stance, this would present a price spike of Bitcoin hitting levels around USD$130,000. On the contrary, hawkish comments from the Fed may bear down additional selling pressure.
Evaluate portfolio allocation based on risk tolerance. The current market presents both opportunity and risk. Investors who want to capitalize on volatility should hold or build their positions. Those who would like to reduce their exposure may wait until clearer trends emerge.
April has always been the month influenced by the halving cycle of Bitcoin. In general, it closes stronger in monetary returns in April, and in most years, it closes post-halving. The most recent March 2024 reduction halved the prizes in mining from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. Actual supply shocks take months to manifest in the overall market dynamics. April 2025 is the first April on this new supply cycle, and it also constitutes April 2025, or one follows another, that meets institutional demand with reduced production of new Bitcoins.
While no past performance can ever guarantee future results. The past April performances of Bitcoin present a good reasonable basis for such optimism. If history repeats itself, the mean return of +12.96% will push the value to about US$94,000 by the end of the month.
Traders must keep their eyes open regarding news events, specifically regulatory ones. These may serve to override seasonal patterns as short-term volatility.
For long-term investors, April could be a strong buy on the assumption that current prices hold. The classic combination of historical seasonal strength reforged with upcoming catalysts may yield a quite favorable position for Bitcoin in view of the beginning of the second quarter.
