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As of May 7, 2025, Bitcoin is trading near $96,571, up 2.26% in 24 hours, positioned in a key resistance zone ahead of a crucial FOMC policy decision. Strong institutional ETF inflows, increased derivatives activity, and technical support around $95K set the stage for a potential breakout toward the $100K mark. However, the Fed’s stance on interest rates could decide whether this rally sustains or faces a pullback.
As of May 7, 2025, Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at US$96,571, showing a 2.26% gain in the last 24 hours. This uptick has pushed the leading cryptocurrency into a critical zone of resistance, and the market now awaits what may be a turning point in its movement.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announcement later today and volume exceeding US$31.69 billion, investor enthusiasm is building up for a critical policy decision by the U.S. Federal Reserve that can have far-reaching implications for global financial markets.
Bitcoin is trading between US$96,100 and US$97,400, the upper limit of a significant resistance zone. The 20-day EMA at US$93,083 and the 50-day EMA at US$90,02 provide substantial support below the current price action, and the chart shows that the EMAs are bullish.
Bullish momentum is still present, as indicated by the MACD indicator's continued positive ground. However, Bitcoin needs a clear break above US$97,400 to confirm a new leg higher towards the US$100,000 psychological level after multiple rejections at just below US$97,500 in recent days.
If US$95,000 support fails, the next important support area is around US$89,000 - US$90,000, close to the 100-day EMA. A breakdown below that might initiate heavy liquidations, especially with US$400 million in short positions hanging in the balance based on recent on-chain data.
Institutional inflows have remained supportive of Bitcoin's recent rally. According to Coinglass, spot Bitcoin ETFs have had net positive inflows in the last few weeks, with BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) having 16 days in a row of inflows. IBIT alone on May 6 added 280 BTC, worth around US$36 million, taking its total holdings to new records.
Since mid-April, cumulative ETF inflows have totaled US$5.13 billion, indicating that institutional investors remain confident. After a brief decline last month, Bitcoin has returned above US$95,000 thanks to this consistent demand, which has helped create a strong price floor.
The next significant breakout or breakdown in Bitcoin could be triggered by today's FOMC decision. The current consensus indicates a more moderate 0.75% total reduction for the year, with no cut currently expected in May, whereas early expectations focused on aggressive rate cuts because of trade concerns and waning economic signals.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell mentioned that more decision-making clarity regarding geopolitical and economic policy, particularly regarding the change in Trump tariffs, is necessary before making the next move.
Additionally, this week, talks between U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese officials may calm trade tensions and provide further tailwinds for global markets.
Metaplanet, A Japanese investment firm, recently purchased 555 Bitcoins worth US$53.4 million at an average price of US$96,134 each, adding to the bullish institutional narrative. This increases their holdings to 5,555 Bitcoin, which is valued at about US$481.5 million. Moves like this sustain the long-term confidence among large-cap investors while BTC hovers near its highs.
Bitcoin derivatives data reveals a significant increase in speculative activity, with overall volume jumping 48.07% to US$98.49 billion and options volume increasing 64.07% to US$3.55 billion. This is a strong sign that traders are positioning for high volatility, likely in anticipation of the FOMC release.
Open interest has risen to US$64.43 billion (+4.09%). The 24-hour long/short ratio is 1.0362, reflecting a modest long bias, but leading traders on Binance are more aggressively long with a ratio of long to short at 1.3372. The market anticipates a significant move, and derivatives players are betting accordingly.
It's a classic make-or-break situation for Bitcoin. Institutional demand is still strong, the technicals are favorable, and the mood of the options market points to increased speculation for higher prices. However, everyone focuses on the Federal Reserve's upcoming announcement, which could either encourage the breakout towards US$100K or trigger a correction.
The important level to watch right now is US$95,000. If Bitcoin remains above this level, the bullish case remains intact. With strong volume and ETF inflows, a convincing move through US$97,400 could push Bitcoin to new heights
