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Bitcoin is consolidating between $110,000 and $123,000, just below its all-time high.
US policy shift allowing crypto in 401(k) plans boosts long-term adoption hopes.
ETF inflows signal renewed institutional interest after recent profit-taking.
Bitcoin price is trading near the mid-$116,000 range today, recovering from the low-$110,000 levels earlier this week. Over the past few days, the price has been moving up and down quickly within the day, but overall it has stayed close to the record high of around $123,000 reached in July. Several major factors are influencing the market right now, including new government policies, inflows into Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and broader economic trends.
Bitcoin price news from the United States gave the cryptocurrency a small boost. The US government signed an order that will allow retirement savings plans, like 401(k) accounts, to invest in alternative assets, including cryptocurrencies. This has been seen as a positive sign for the long-term future of Bitcoin, as it could bring in more investors through regulated investment channels.
The biggest news this week came from Washington, where the President signed an executive order asking regulators to make it easier for retirement savings plans to include assets like Bitcoin, real estate, and private equity. While it will take time for the Department of Labor and the Securities and Exchange Commission to set the rules, the announcement alone has created excitement.
Retirement plans in the US hold trillions of dollars in assets. If even a small percentage of that money starts flowing into Bitcoin, the demand could grow significantly. This does not mean the change will happen overnight, but it is an essential step toward wider acceptance of cryptocurrency in traditional finance.
Bitcoin ETFs in the US saw a small but important change this week. After four days of outflows, where investors were pulling their money out, Wednesday saw a net inflow of about $91 million. BlackRock’s ETF, one of the biggest in the market, was a major contributor to this increase.
While $91 million is not huge compared to big bull-market days, it shows that institutional investors are still interested. ETFs are one of the easiest ways for large investors, such as funds and asset managers, to get exposure to Bitcoin without buying it directly. When ETF flows turn positive, it often gives the market more confidence.
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Although there was a positive day recently, it’s worth noting that the previous week saw the first net outflow for Bitcoin and other digital-asset investment products in 15 weeks. A total of $223 million left crypto funds, with Bitcoin making up the largest portion of this at $404 million in outflows.
This shows that some investors are locking in profits after July’s record highs. Even so, the total amount invested this year remains much higher than it was at the start of 2025, suggesting that the overall trend is still upward.
From a technical analysis perspective, Bitcoin price has been moving sideways in a wide range since reaching its all-time high in mid-July. The upper limit of this range is around $123,000, while the lower support zone is between $110,000 and $112,000.
Many traders see this as a healthy pause after a strong rally. The market is building a base before possibly making another push higher. If Bitcoin price today breaks above $123,000, it could set a new record and attract more buyers. On the other hand, if it falls below $110,000, it could lead to a deeper correction.
Two supply-related stories are still on investors’ minds:
Mt. Gox repayments – The defunct Mt. Gox exchange, which collapsed in 2014, owes a large amount of Bitcoin to creditors. The final repayment deadline has now been pushed to October 2025. This means there will be no sudden flood of coins hitting the market in the next few weeks, which has reduced selling pressure in the short term.
Government-held Bitcoin sales – In the past, governments have sold large amounts of seized Bitcoin. For example, in 2024, Germany sold a significant amount of BTC. While such events can cause short-term drops in price, the market has shown it can recover quickly from them.
Bitcoin price prediction is still closely tied to global economic trends, especially in the US. When economic data suggests that interest rates might be cut, investors often turn to riskier assets like Bitcoin. This week, weaker economic numbers have increased the chances of a rate cut in September, which has helped cryptocurrency prices move higher.
If the Federal Reserve signals that interest rates will stay high for longer, it could put pressure on Bitcoin prices, as higher rates usually make traditional investments like bonds more attractive compared to risk assets.
The derivatives market, where traders use leverage to bet on price movements, saw a reset earlier this week when many leveraged positions were closed out. Options traders are still buying protection against a possible fall below $100,000 by the end of the year, showing that there is caution in the market even as prices remain strong.
This mix of optimism in the spot market and caution in the derivatives market often leads to choppy but upward-sloping price movements.
Regulatory updates – Any new guidance from regulators on retirement plan investments or other crypto market rules could quickly affect prices.
ETF inflow trends – A series of days with strong ETF inflows would be a strong bullish signal.
Economic data – US inflation and jobs numbers will influence interest rate expectations, which in turn affect Bitcoin’s appeal.
Mt. Gox developments – Any large transfers from Mt. Gox wallets could cause short-term volatility, even if the actual repayment date is months away.
Also Read - Is Switching from Bitcoin to Ethereum a Genius Move or Risk?
Bitcoin is showing strength just below its all-time highs, supported by positive policy news, a return to ETF inflows, and optimism about the future of crypto adoption. However, there is still evidence of profit-taking and cautious positioning among some traders.
The current price range between $110,000 and $123,000 is likely to hold unless a major catalyst pushes Bitcoin out of the market events. A breakout above $123,000 could trigger another rally, while a fall below $110,000 would signal that the market needs more time to consolidate.
For now, the outlook remains positive but not without risks. Bitcoin continues to be influenced by a mix of government policy changes, institutional investor behavior, and global economic trends. The combination of these factors will determine whether the next major move is upward to new records or a deeper pullback for another round of consolidation.
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