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Bitcoin holds close to 107K, supported by strong technical momentum and institutional confidence.
Fed signals a potential rate cut, while falling oil prices ease inflation fears.
A breakout above $110K could open the door to $120K before the summer ends.
A wave of optimism is rippling through the cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin has not only held above the psychologically important $100,000 threshold but recently broke through $107K, hinting at the potential for a move toward $120K.
Let’s explore the four key factors supporting this bullish outlook.
Over the past several weeks, geopolitical unrest in the Middle East particularly related to Israel and Iran has rattled markets. Still, Bitcoin’s decline to sub-$100K levels was brief. It quickly rebounded, proving its worth as a robust asset that investors turn to even during global uncertainty.
This is more than just a bounce; it’s a demonstration of market reflexivity. Strong support above $100K is fueling buyer confidence retail and institutional alike creating a self-reinforcing cycle of price growth. When prices slip, investors step in, pushing the price higher.
On-chain data shows more signs of strength: some investors sold their Bitcoin around $95K, likely at a loss, but many confident buyers are stepping in not just holding, but buying more.
Monetary policy remains one of the major macro levers for crypto. Historically, rate cuts and easier money fuels risk assets like Bitcoin. In recent days, voices within the Federal Reserve once firmly in the hawk camp have hinted at easing rates as soon as July.
Comments from Fed officials suggest a growing openness to reducing interest rates, with inflation contained and the cost of living stabilizing. A shift to a looser policy environment often leads to waves of new capital entering risk markets. If confirmed, a July rate cut could offer a major tailwind for Bitcoin.
Also Read: Bitcoin Price Surges Above $106,000 as Buyers Eye $107K Breakout
One largely overlooked factor in the current bull thesis is crude oil’s price collapse: down over 6.5% in a single day, and roughly 15% year-over-year. This drop undermines inflationary pressures tied to energy costs less fuel means lower transportation costs, and by extension, cooler core inflation.
Since central banks closely monitor these second‑order inflation effects, steady or declining oil prices reduce the urgency to keep rates high. Lower inflation beats and steady or falling oil costs create room for rate cuts a scenario that benefits cryptocurrencies along with stocks.
The technical setup for Bitcoin is perhaps the most encouraging sign.
According to the 4-hour chart:
Support Zone Hold: The $100K - $104K range acted as a dependable floor. Bitcoin tested this area several times and rebounded strongly each time.
Breaking the Downtrend: A resistance trendline, tied to earlier highs, has been broken decisively. That’s a bullish shift from consolidation to uptrend.
Bitcoin’s technical setup has turned decisively bullish, with the 50-day moving average forming a classic “golden cross” above the 200-day EMA.
Adding to the momentum, the 100-day EMA has also crossed above the 200-day line, creating a strong bullish formation. With the price now trading above all three key averages, the trend confirms upward strength and growing buyer confidence.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is climbing toward mid-60s, currently around 67, suggesting sustained positive momentum with room to climb before overbought conditions set in.
The trendline breakout, moving average stack, consolidation above crucial trend markers typically precedes sustained rallies in asset markets.
Also Read: Bitcoin’s Not Done Yet: Here’s Why It Could Soar Into 2026
If these four factors align geopolitical resilience, dovish Fed, easing inflation, and bullish technicals a price target near $120K becomes a realistic possibility into year-end.
Key levels to watch:
Short-Term: Consolidation between $108K and $110K may occur as Bitcoin digests recent gains.
Mid-Term: A breakout past $110K could trigger another leg toward $120K, possibly before summer ends.
Head-Fakes: A return to $100K - $104K support would shake out short-term bulls but might provide a buying opportunity.
Fed Hesitation: If inflation data remains sticky and the Fed delays rate cuts, crypto could correct sharply.
Geopolitical Flare-Ups: Renewed conflict or escalation might disrupt investor sentiment across global markets.
Oil Prices Rebound: A reversal in energy prices could put inflation fears back on the table, delaying a crypto rally.
Bitcoin is at a pivotal moment. Strongholds under $100K, fresh moving average breakouts, easing macro pressures, and improved risk sentiment all point to one thing: momentum. The case for a move toward $120K is solidifying.
But as always, markets are dynamic. Watch the $108K - $110K range closely it will serve as a critical litmus test. If Bitcoin can hold and build beyond that, the door to fresh highs is wide open.
