Tesla posted a company-compiled delivery consensus for Q4 2025 before its production and deliveries report. The table shows 422,850 global vehicle deliveries for the quarter and a 420,399 median estimate. Tesla also listed a full-year 2025 delivery consensus of 1,640,752 vehicles.
The automotive giant published the consensus on Dec. 29, 2025, on its investor relations website. It said, "Tesla does not endorse any information, recommendations, or conclusions made by the analysts."
Tesla separated reported data from estimates on the same page. It said Q3 2025 shows actual figures, while Q4 2025 onward shows compiled estimates. The table also lists the median, standard deviation, and estimate count.
Tesla reported a 21,959 standard deviation for the Q4 delivery estimates. It also reported 20 delivery estimates for Q4 and 16 energy deployment estimates. Tesla reported a 1.3 GWh standard deviation for Q4 energy deployment estimates.
Tesla split the Q4 2025 delivery consensus by model group. It shows 388,002 Model 3 and Model Y deliveries for the quarter. It also shows 34,848 deliveries for other models, including Cybertruck.
Tesla also included Q3 2025 delivery totals for comparison. It reported 497,099 total deliveries in Q3 2025, including 481,166 Model 3 and Model Y units. It reported 15,933 deliveries for other models in that quarter.
The page also includes energy storage deployments. Tesla reported 12.5 GWh of deployments in Q3 2025. The compiled consensus shows 13.4 GWh for Q4 2025 and a 13.2 GWh median.
For the full year, the consensus shows 1,509,460 Tesla Model 3 and Model Y deliveries. It also shows 131,292 deliveries for other models. The table lists a 1,638,301 median estimate for full-year 2025 deliveries.
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US tax guidance tied clean vehicle credits to acquisition timing in 2025. The IRS said buyers must acquire a vehicle on or before Sept. 30, 2025. The IRS also said buyers place a vehicle in service when they take possession.
The IRS also described ways to show acquisition before the deadline. It cited a binding written contract and a payment on or before Sept. 30, 2025. As a result, many buyers and dealers tracked delivery timing around the cutoff.
Tesla’s table extends estimates beyond the quarter. For 2026, it shows a 1,750,243 delivery consensus and a 1,743,856 median estimate. For 2027, it shows a 2,010,459 delivery consensus and a 1,900,000 median estimate.
Tesla plans to publish its Q4 2025 production and delivery figures after the quarter ends. Investors will compare the reported totals with the company-compiled delivery consensus. The report will also include energy deployment totals and Tesla stock movement.