Crypto markets advanced on July 3 as Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP climbed before more than $2.2 billion in options expired across the three assets. The move followed weaker United States payroll data, nearly $300 million in short liquidations, stronger liquidity signals, and deep unrealized losses among holders.
The payroll report missed expectations, strengthening rate-cut hopes and accelerating the rebound across Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP before the July 3 options expiry. Traders also monitored July seasonality, changing derivatives positioning, and renewed purchases from long-term Bitcoin holders as the market attempted to extend the rebound.
Bitcoin rose more than 6% to about $62,000 after a recent market reset, while its price moved above the seven-day moving average. Deribit data showed $1.9 billion in Bitcoin options expiring with a 0.70 put-to-call ratio and a maximum pain level near $61,000.
The market price stood near $61,626, while traders showed stronger interest in contracts above $61,500 and upcoming calls at $64,000, $66,000, and $70,000. Call trading volume exceeded put volume during the previous 24 hours, producing a bullish 0.75 put-to-call ratio across active Bitcoin options.
At the same time, falling implied volatility and a rising 25-delta skew suggested that options markets were shifting from panic toward greater stability. Could stronger call demand and improving volatility measures support a wider recovery as traders move beyond the July 3 expiry?
Ethereum traded near $1,713 before $230 million in options expired, while the maximum pain price remained lower at approximately $1,650. The expiry carried a 1.29 put-to-call ratio, although that figure fell toward one as traders opened September calls around the $2,500 strike.
Deribit data assigned Ethereum a 91% probability of finishing above $1,700, reflecting stronger positioning after the recent rebound. XRP gained about 5% in 24 hours and traded near $1.10 as softer employment data strengthened expectations for a future Federal Reserve rate cut.
About $3.7 million in XRP options reached expiry with a 1.06 put-to-call ratio and a maximum pain level near $1.06. Deribit data also indicated a possible $1.14 XRP target by the end of July as the market continued to recover.
Santiment data showed deep unrealized losses across short-term and long-term holder groups, with 30-day and 365-day MVRV ratios near minus 45% and minus 47%. The MVRV ratio compares market value with realized value, offering a view of how current prices differ from the average token cost basis.
Large negative readings have historically appeared after speculative excess declined, leaving a market with fewer short-term participants and more conviction-driven holders. Bitcoin still traded below its 30-day moving average, while 10x Research identified continued supply pressure from large transfers to the Gemini exchange.
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The Winklevoss twins transferred about $67 million in Bitcoin and Ethereum to Gemini, a move that 10x Research linked to profit-taking pressure. Still, long-term holders increased purchases and helped form a firmer price floor after Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh avoided signaling immediate interest rate increases.
That buying activity offset some exchange-related pressure as Bitcoin held above its short-term average and approached the options market’s key expiry levels. Markus Thielen of 10x Research said July has historically delivered Bitcoin’s strongest monthly performance, averaging 9.1% gains before flatter trading in August and September.
Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP gained before the $2.2 billion options expiry as weaker US jobs data increased rate-cut hopes. Strong call demand, short liquidations, and renewed long-term buying supported the rebound. Traders should now watch key expiry levels and liquidity trends for signs of sustained recovery.