On Wednesday, October 1, the Indian stock market is expected to open lower as traders are anticipating the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) monetary policy announcement. The global cues are mixed, and Gift Nifty trends are weak, which suggests a flat opening for domestic equities.

Gift Nifty futures were around 24,775, with a slight discount of about 3 points to the previous Nifty close, suggesting a flat-to-weak start. On Tuesday, the market extended its losing streak to its eighth consecutive session. The Sensex slipped 97.32 points to close at 80,267.62, while the Nifty 50 ended 23.80 points lower at 24,611.10.

RBI Policy in Focus

The RBI’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will deliver its verdict later today. Most economists expect the central bank to maintain the repo rate as is and stick to its current position, whilst having a close eye on inflation and liquidity. The decision is likely to provide bias in equities, bonds, and currency markets for the short term.

Nifty 50: Key Levels and Technical View

The Open Interest (OI) data on Nifty suggests significant call writing at the levels of 24,700-24,800.  Meanwhile, on the downside, the 24,500-24,400 level remains an important support zone aligning with the 200-day moving average.

Analysts are pointing out that the index is still making lower highs and lower lows, suggesting weakness. If the benchmark index breaks above 24,800, a short-term rally towards 25,000 could occur.  If, however, A failure to hold 24,600 could see the index move down to 24,400.

Sensex Outlook

Sensex is experiencing a similar choppy trend. Analysts have said the index has support at around the 79,800-79,500 level, and resistance at the 80,700-81,000 level.

A substantial move above 81,000 can open the way to the 81,500-82,000 range, but weakness below 79,800 could create additional selling pressure. Market experts say that Sensex is struggling to stay above key moving averages, showing uncertainty in the market leading up to the RBI decision.

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Bank Nifty Outlook

Bank Nifty closed at 54,635.85, up 174.85 points, but remains capped below its 20- and 50-day EMAs. Resistance is placed at 54,890-55,200, while key support levels are at 54,080 and 53,800.

A breakout above 55,000 would mark the first sign of near-term trend reversal, whereas failure to hold 53,800 could prolong the correction.

Rupee and Global Cues

The rupee opened flat at 88.78 per dollar, staying under pressure near record lows. Asian markets were mixed, with Japan’s Nikkei falling over 1% and South Korea’s Kospi down 0.95%.