.png){kind=logo}
Extreme heat in India could reduce safe working hours across major cities and weaken labour productivity over the coming decades. A new World Bank report projects large job-equivalent losses in Delhi, Kolkata, Mumbai and Chennai by 2050.
The warning comes as the World Bank raises India’s FY27 growth forecast from 6.3% to 6.6%. Strong domestic demand, tariff reductions and recent trade agreements support the revised outlook. However, higher energy prices could pressure household spending and business activity.
New Delhi could lose work equal to 266,000 full-time jobs by 2030, according to the report. That figure could rise to 418,000 jobs by 2050 as outdoor working conditions become more dangerous.
Kolkata could lose 360,000 job equivalents by 2030 and 391,000 by 2050. Mumbai faces projected losses of 204,000 and 255,000 jobs during the same periods. Chennai could lose 141,000 jobs by 2030 and 145,000 by 2050.
Meanwhile, heat-related working-hour losses could rise sharply in other cities later this century. Patna’s unsafe working hours could increase from 2.4% in 2030 to 6.3% by 2080. Jaipur’s share could climb from 1.5% to 2.9%.
The report also warns that Delhi’s main airport could face temperatures near or above 50°C by 2030. Such conditions may force airlines to reduce passenger numbers or cargo loads during take-off.
Public transport users also face greater heat exposure. Walking accounts for 38% of total travel time for Delhi Metro commuters, according to the report. Longer exposure increases health risks during severe heat periods.
Additionally, rising cooling demand is placing more pressure on electricity networks. India used a record 156 billion electricity units in May 2024, up 15% from a year earlier. Air-conditioner sales rose by an estimated 34% between 2023 and 2024.
Temperatures above 40°C can increase power outage frequency by 20% to 50%, the report said. They can also extend outage duration by 15% to 60%, reducing access to cooling during peak demand.
The report said official heat death figures may not capture the full health burden. Authorities often record deaths under cardiac or kidney failure instead of heat exposure. One analysis linked a five-day Indian heatwave to about 30,000 excess deaths.
Across South Asia, extreme heat already costs work equal to 31 million full-time jobs each year. Without stronger adaptation, the region’s economy could be nearly 7% smaller by 2050.
“South Asia’s cities are central to the region’s future, but rising temperatures are putting jobs, livelihoods, and economic growth at risk,” said Johannes Zutt, World Bank vice president for South Asia.
India also lost an estimated 247 billion potential labour hours and $194 billion in potential income during 2024. Agriculture accounted for 66% of lost hours, while construction represented another 20%.
However, the World Bank estimates India’s sustainable cooling market could reach $1.6 trillion by 2040. Energy-efficient air conditioners, green buildings and climate-ready infrastructure could drive the market. Such investments could also create nearly 3.7 million jobs.
The report recommends adding heat protection to existing housing and urban programmes. It also calls for stronger safeguards for outdoor workers and wider heat early warning systems.
World Bank estimates show such warning systems can return about $50 for every $1 invested. The lender said local preparedness can protect residents and keep cities operating during extreme heat.
