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A potential merger between SpaceX and Tesla could reshape Elon Musk’s influence over his business empire. The deal may give him majority voting control of the combined company, but it is unlikely to trigger the full USD 1 trillion Tesla stock award at once.
Musk publicly backed the idea of combining the two companies. Wall Street views a deal as increasingly plausible, although special committees at both firms and shareholder approvals still stand between discussion and execution.
Musk already holds about 85% of SpaceX’s voting power through super-voting shares. At Tesla, however, he owns nearly a fifth of the company and has much weaker voting control.
Barclays estimates that if SpaceX acquired Tesla at their current relative sizes, Musk would own about 37% of the combined company but command about 56% of its votes. The advantage comes from SpaceX’s dual-class share structure, under which certain shares carry 10 votes each.
That structure matters since Tesla’s existing pay plan would leave Musk with only about 29% voting power even if he met every target. A merger could therefore deliver the governance outcome he has sought without requiring him to clear the plan’s most demanding goals.
Tesla shareholders approved a pay package worth up to USD 1 trillion in stock last year. The award was designed to vest over time as Musk achieved market-value and operational milestones, including deploying one million robotaxis and selling one million humanoid robots.
Tesla’s change-in-control provisions could reduce the importance of operational targets. Under those rules, stock awards may depend more directly on Tesla’s market value. Yet Musk would need Tesla to reach roughly USD 2 trillion in value before receiving any award under the plan.
The central question is therefore not whether Musk would become richer overnight. It is whether a merger would consolidate his control over a combined Tesla-SpaceX while postponing the largest part of his compensation.
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