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Mike McGlone, senior commodity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, says Bitcoin could fall back to $10,000 in 2026 if it does not reclaim and hold $75,000. His latest view links price level to a broader argument about historical trading ranges, tighter liquidity, and rising competition from stablecoins.
The forecast adds to an ongoing debate over Bitcoin’s next long-term direction. While some market participants continue to treat the asset as digital gold, McGlone’s analysis points to weaker macro conditions and changing market structure as reasons for a deeper reset.
McGlone said Bitcoin must stay above $75,000 to weaken the case for a return to $10,000. He described a threshold as a clear test for whether the asset can rebuild demand after losing momentum from higher levels.
He wrote, “Potential $10,000 Bitcoin in 2026. Prove me wrong – stay above $75,000.” He also said Bitcoin may be moving back toward prices seen before the large liquidity wave of 2020 and 2021. In his view, the previous period around $10,000 remains one of Bitcoin’s most active long-term trading zones.
His analysis also ties the bearish target to market behavior after the pandemic-era rally. Before central bank easing and heavy stimulus pushed risk assets higher, Bitcoin spent long periods near $10,000. McGlone said that range may again act as a reference point if liquidity stays tighter.
McGlone said roughly $10,000 is Bitcoin’s most traded price since futures launched in 2017. The argument places weight on market history rather than short-term price moves. He sees the level as a long-term equilibrium that formed before the rapid expansion in digital asset valuations.
According to this view, Bitcoin’s rise far above this range came during an unusual period for global markets. Once this period faded, the asset began facing a different environment marked by higher rates, reduced liquidity, and a weaker appetite for speculative trades.
He said, “Before the biggest money pump in history in 2020-21, Bitcoin hovered around $10,000, and it may be reverting.” This comment reflects his belief that past trading behavior still matters, especially when macro support becomes less favorable for risk assets.
McGlone also pointed to changes inside the digital asset market. He said millions of cryptocurrencies now compete for capital, which creates pressure for Bitcoin as new tokens continue entering the market.
He argued that only a small number of crypto assets track real value in a durable way, with stablecoins standing out. In this context, he named Tether as one of the clearest examples of steady demand tied to blockchain-based dollar access.
He wrote, “Crypto dollars represent a most enduring trend in the space,” and added, “Unlimited crypto supply and use-case rivals are Bitcoin headwinds.” He also said he expects “the ‘flippening’ to continue, with Tether’s AUM topping Ethereum in 2026 and eventually Bitcoin.”
McGlone linked his Bitcoin forecast to conditions in traditional markets as well. He said a stock market downturn and a rise in volatility could pressure crypto prices, especially if investors move away from higher-risk assets.
This view also includes the chance of back-to-back annual declines for Bitcoin in 2026, which would be a first for the asset. He said, “The graphic shows a key driver: a potential stock market rollover and a recovery in volatility. Bitcoin’s first-ever consecutive down years in 2026 may be leading the way.”
His latest comments keep the focus on whether Bitcoin can regain $75,000 and hold it. For now, this level remains central to his outlook, with $10,000 still in view if broader market pressure continues.
