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Bitcoin enters a critical US macro week after its strongest dollar-denominated weekly gain, with PCE inflation, revised GDP data, and Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech now in focus. BTC closed last week at $77,387 after gaining $14,264, or 22.7%, in seven days.
Monday brings no major scheduled event, while Tuesday features August consumer confidence and July new home sales data. The week becomes more important for crypto markets on Wednesday.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis will release July PCE inflation and core PCE at 8:30 a.m. ET. The measure remains central because the Federal Reserve uses it to assess underlying inflation pressure.
Economists cited by Kiplinger expect core PCE to rise slightly month over month and reach 3.2% annually. That level would remain above the Fed’s 2% inflation objective.
A hotter reading could strengthen expectations for higher interest rates and support Treasury yields and the dollar. By contrast, a softer figure could reduce pressure on the Fed to tighten policy further. The second estimate of US second-quarter GDP also arrives Wednesday. The advance estimate showed annualized growth of 1.5%, down from 2.1% in the first quarter.
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will deliver his first Jackson Hole keynote on Friday after his appointment. The speech follows the Fed’s July decision to hold rates at 3.50% to 3.75%. Three policymakers voted for a rate increase at that meeting. Meanwhile, longer-term Treasury yields have climbed, with the 10-year recently near 4.73% and the 30-year above 5.2%.
Investors will watch Warsh for signals on persistent inflation and the possibility of another rate increase. How will Bitcoin react if his message keeps higher rates on the table?
BTC surged from about $64,000 to almost $80,000 late last week before settling near $77,000. The move followed the US Treasury Department’s announcement of an expanded buyback program. At the same time, market sentiment improved sharply. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index reached 78, its highest level since December 2024 and close to the “extreme greed” category.
Read More: Bitcoin Surges $15,000 as Short Squeeze Pushes Price Toward $80,000
US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $1.92 billion in net inflows during the trading week ended August 21. That was their largest weekly total since October 2025.
Matt Cole, chairman and CEO of Strive, said Bitcoin’s performance against the dollar and gold points to stronger demand for scarce monetary assets. He also expects short-term pullbacks. The Bitcoin-to-gold ratio reached 16.73 ounces of gold per Bitcoin, its highest level since May. Cole said Bitcoin had broken out against both the dollar and gold.
He added that relative performance could influence where new capital flows. Cole also said buyers could respond aggressively to a short-term decline after the latest rally.
Bitcoin enters the week after a 22.7% gain, supported by $1.92 billion in spot ETF inflows and stronger market sentiment. Traders now face July PCE inflation, revised second-quarter GDP, and Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech as the main US macro events shaping rate expectations.
