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Altcoin Season 2026 is moving closer to confirmation after the CoinMarketCap Altcoin Season Index climbed to 61 out of 100. The reading stood at just 23 one month earlier. It reached 60 yesterday and 52 last week. Still, the index remains below 75, the level typically associated with a full altcoin season.
The broader crypto market stood at USD 2.87 trillion on October 1. Bitcoin dominance fell 1.11% to 58.6%, while Ethereum held an 11.5% market share. Other cryptocurrencies accounted for 30%, up 0.92%.
Meanwhile, the Fear & Greed Index reached 67, placing market sentiment in the ‘Greed’ range. These readings show stronger altcoin participation, although Bitcoin still controls more than half of the market.
The Altcoin Season Index has risen sharply within one month. Its move from 23 to 61 shows that more altcoins are gaining relative strength. However, the market remains in a transition zone because the index has not reached 75.
The latest reading also sits near its yearly high. The index reached 67 on October 2, 2025, before dropping to a low of 14 on December 19. Its recovery during 2026 has therefore reversed much of that decline.
Chart data also points toward broader altcoin participation. Analyst Matthew Hyland said the OTHERS.D/BTC.D ratio broke out on the monthly chart. This ratio compares altcoin dominance with Bitcoin dominance.
The ratio remained within a range since early 2025. It also stayed near 0.12% to 0.15% until mid-2026 after falling sharply following 2022. A fresh monthly green candle has now moved above that range.
Bitcoin entered October after a strong third quarter. Santiment data showed BTC on pace to finish Q3 with a 43% gain. That would mark its strongest third quarter in nine years.
By comparison, Bitcoin’s usual Q3 average stands at 8.61%. Altcoins also advanced 38% since June and reached a combined market value of USD 1.16 trillion.
Bitcoin added more than USD 508 billion in market value during the period. Altcoins added more than USD 319 billion. Therefore, both parts of the crypto market expanded rather than one simply replacing the other.
Bitcoin traded at USD 83,790.80 on October 1, up about 0.6%. Its 24-hour trading volume reached USD 35.56 billion, while its market capitalization stood at USD 1.684 trillion. Its circulating supply reached 20.091 million BTC from the fixed 21 million total. Treasury holdings across tracked entities stood at 1,917,676 BTC.
September also favored Bitcoin relative to several major assets. Bitcoin gained about 7%, while the S&P 500 changed little and gold fell more than 6%. Spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted billions during the month, while Strategy acquired another 1,665 BTC. Still, ETF flows weakened at month-end.
SoSoValue recorded USD 185.60 million in net spot Bitcoin ETF outflows on September 30. The reading ended nine straight days of net inflows.
Also Read: FLOW Price Jumps 10% as Altcoin Rotation Lifts Momentum
Trader @el_crypto_prof expects the current cycle to develop into a stronger phase than 2021. He described it as another wave following the 2016–2017 and 2020–2021 cycles.
The 2021 market looked different. Bitcoin dominance dropped from around 70% to nearly 40%, while numerous mid-cap and small-cap tokens gained between 10 and 100 times.
Bitcoin later reached roughly USD 126,000 during the October 2025 market peak. Altcoins then fell sharply, and many top-50 cryptocurrencies still trade below those highs.
ETF demand also directs more institutional capital toward Bitcoin. As a result, rotation from BTC into smaller cryptocurrencies may not occur as broadly as it did during previous cycles.
Volatility adds another risk. Altcoin annual volatility often exceeds 80%, compared with approximately 50% to 70% for Bitcoin. Smaller assets have also lost between 90% and 99% during previous market crashes.
Thin order books and high leverage can amplify those price moves. @el_crypto_prof also warned about the possibility of a prolonged bear market after a future market peak.
For now, market breadth remains the next major signal. An Altcoin Season Index above 75 alongside another decline in Bitcoin dominance would meet two key conditions associated with a broader altcoin season.
