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Bitcoin’s recovery from its 2026 downturn is strengthening the case that a new bull market has begun. The latest cycle suggests Bitcoin may be moving away from the extreme rallies and collapses that defined its first decade.
A key signal is the 50-week simple moving average, which has historically helped confirm major trend reversals. During previous bear markets, Bitcoin repeatedly struggled below this level before sustained recoveries in 2015, 2019, and 2023.
Bitcoin reclaimed the 50-week SMA, then near USD 78,800, with a weekly close around USD 81,200 on September 20. It subsequently closed near USD 84,456 on September 27 and traded around USD 86,500 on October 5.
On-chain momentum improved. Bitcoin’s MVRV ratio moved above its 365-day average in September, similar to transitions seen in 2019 and 2023. MVRV compares Bitcoin’s market value with realized value.
The latest bear market was less destructive than previous cycles. BTC declined from USD 124,824 in October 2025 to USD 58,525 on June 30, 2026, representing a roughly 53% drawdown. Previous cycle-ending declines reached 84.5% in 2013-2015, 83.8% in 2017-2018 and 76.7% in 2021-2022.
Upside multiples are compressing too. Bitcoin’s trough-to-peak advance declined from approximately 112 times during the 2015-2017 cycle to 21 times in the following cycle and roughly eight times between November 2022 and October 2025.
Bitcoin remained above realized price throughout the latest downturn, unlike during the 2015, 2018 and 2022 bear markets.
Bitcoin that has been held for more than 155 days hit around 16.64 million BTC in September, which accounts for around 83% of the total supply.
On October 2nd, the US spot Bitcoin ETFs held around 1.3 million BTC. The public companies, on the other hand, held around 1.29 million BTC, which is roughly equal to 6.4% of the circulating supply.
Combined together, both these groups controlled approximately 13% of the circulating Bitcoin, indicating that institutions continue to hold their investment even during the heavy market downturns, potentially reducing forced selling pressure and overall volatility.
Bitcoin’s October 2025 peak arrived around 18 months after the April 2024 halving, broadly matching previous cycle timing. What changed was magnitude.
If June remains the bottom, the latest bear market lasted roughly eight months, compared with approximately 12-13 months during previous downturns. Smaller upside multiples, shallower losses and potentially shorter bear markets indicate that Bitcoin’s cycles are becoming less extreme.
Bitcoin appears to have entered another bullish phase as technical and on-chain indicators improve. The four-year cycle remains visible, but its influence may gradually weaken. Growing institutional and long-term ownership could produce more durable advances and less destructive downturns.
Also Read: Bitcoin Miners Shift Power to AI, Sidelining USD 1.5B in Mining Equipment
1. Has Bitcoin entered a new bull market in 2026?
Technical and on-chain indicators increasingly support a bullish transition, including Bitcoin reclaiming its 50-week SMA. However, future price performance will determine whether the recovery develops into a sustained bull market.
2. Is Bitcoin’s four-year cycle over?
The four-year pattern has not completely disappeared, as the October 2025 peak still broadly followed historical post-halving timing. However, smaller gains and shallower declines suggest its influence could be weakening.
3. How large was Bitcoin’s latest bear-market decline?
Bitcoin fell from USD 124,824 in October 2025 to USD 58,525 on June 30, 2026. This represented an approximately 53% decline, substantially smaller than previous cycle-ending drawdowns.
4. How are institutional investors affecting Bitcoin’s market cycle?
US spot Bitcoin ETFs and public companies together held roughly 13% of circulating Bitcoin. Persistent institutional ownership could reduce available supply and potentially make future downturns less severe.
5. What indicators suggest Bitcoin’s market trend has improved?
Bitcoin reclaimed its 50-week moving average, while MVRV moved above its 365-day average in September. Both indicators have historically been associated with improving long-term market momentum.
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