The XRP ETF decision is delayed again due to the US government shutdown and SEC backlog.
XRP trades near $2.63 with strong institutional inflows despite uncertainty.
Analysts expect eventual approval, marking a major step for crypto Spot ETFs.
The much-anticipated spot ETF for XRP has missed another deadline in the United States, renewing discussion about whether a rejection is now on the table. The XRP ETF was scheduled for decision points in October 2025, but has now been deferred. One of the main reasons is the federal government shutdown in the US, which has caused the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to halt or slow its review of crypto-related ETF applications.
Since the regulatory review is on hold, missing a deadline in this case does not automatically mean a rejection. Rather, it reflects the halt in the process and the backlog of filings that the SEC will face once operations resume.
Several factors contribute to this postponement. First, the US government shutdown has forced many federal agencies, including the SEC, to operate with reduced staff or defer non-essential work. This has directly impacted the timetable for ETF reviews for digital assets. The filings for XRP, as well as for related assets, were ready for decision around mid-October, but the agency’s pause has rendered those dates moot.
Second, beyond the shutdown, the SEC is facing a heavy filing load. ETFs for various cryptocurrencies, modifications to relevant regulatory frameworks (for example, generic listing standards), and large multi-asset fund applications are all in the queue. For XRP in particular, filings from asset managers such as 21Shares, Bitwise, WisdomTree, CoinShares, and others are waiting in line.
Third, while procedural filings such as Section 19b-4 notifications or S-1 amendments have been submitted, these filings are only part of a larger regulatory review. Until the SEC resumes full operations and releases staff to evaluate custody, surveillance mechanisms, investor-protection frameworks, and other aspects, the applications cannot advance to final decisions.
The most recent public data suggests that decision deadlines for the XRP ETF applications have been pushed into late November to December 2025. Analysts who track the filings note that the odds of approval by year-end now stand at approximately 99%, though this reflects industry sentiment rather than regulatory guarantee.
XRP price is currently trading around $2.63. This includes speculative value tied to the possibility of a successful ETF launch, and a level that suggests that expectations of approval are already built in to some degree.
If the SEC provides the approval, some analysts project XRP could experience a rapid price move, potentially 50% to 150% higher within weeks. However, they caution that much of the upside may already be reflected in current prices, and that a delayed launch or only partial approval could temper gains.
Also Read - XRP Price Prediction: $1 Billion Treasury Sparks Bullish Momentum
Despite the regulatory uncertainty, institutional interest in XRP is on the rise. According to a report, products linked to XRP registered approximately $61.6 million in net inflows in a single week ending October 13, 2025, marking the 18th consecutive week of positive flow. These flows suggest investors are positioning ahead of potential ETF approval rather than waiting passively.
Globally, the environment for crypto-ETF approvals has improved. The SEC has previously approved spot ETFs for major cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum, raising hopes that XRP may now follow.
In non-US jurisdictions, crypto exchange-traded products tied to XRP and other altcoins have already launched under frameworks such as MiCA in Europe. These developments help strengthen the case for infrastructure readiness, though they do not guarantee US approval.
Whether the XRP ETF will be rejected remains uncertain, but current evidence suggests delay is the more likely outcome rather than outright denial. The fact that asset managers remain actively filing, that institutional demand remains strong, and that the regulatory framework for crypto-ETFs has recently expanded all point toward approval being within reach.
However, rejection is possible if the SEC identifies unresolved issues such as inadequate surveillance-sharing agreements, custody inconsistencies, or token-specific concerns related to XRP’s past regulatory scrutiny. Considering that XRP and its parent entity have faced enforcement action in the past, the regulatory bar may be higher than for some other digital assets.
In short, the facts point toward approval in the coming weeks or months rather than a permanent dead end, but the risk of an unsatisfactory outcome cannot be dismissed.
Also Read - XRP Price Pressure Grows After $2.6 Billion Sell-Off by Major Holders
If the XRP ETF is approved, it is likely to facilitate large inflows from institutional investors, pension funds, managed accounts, and traditional financial networks that previously lacked access to XRP via regulated vehicles. This could enhance liquidity, trading volume, and market-structure stability for XRP. It would also represent a recognition by regulators that the asset infrastructure and market oversight satisfy required standards.
On the other hand, if the process continues to drag, broader investor confidence in crypto-ETFs may be affected. This could lead to muted launches, smaller first-month inflows than expected, or less dramatic price responses. For XRP itself, an extended wait could mean that potential upside is already partly lost, as the “approval expectation” becomes increasingly priced in.
Henceforth, key indicators to watch include announcements from the SEC regarding backlog clearances, public comments by ETF applicants about amended filings, and any institutional moves (e.g., new custody partnerships, surveillance-sharing accords) that strengthen the operational readiness case. The release of a definitive decision - whether approval, conditional approval, or denial - will likely trigger heightened market movement in XRP and related assets.
The renewed delay in the XRP ETF decision highlights the intersection of regulatory timing, institutional readiness, and market expectation. While the missed deadline raises questions, it does not currently point to an inevitable rejection. Instead, a combination of the US government shutdown, an overloaded regulatory docket, and procedural review steps explains why the timeline now stretches into late 2025.
If approval does arrive, it could mark a significant milestone for XRP and crypto-ETFs broadly. Until then, the market must contend with anticipation, patience, and the risk that timing will be pushed further than many expect.
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