Apple stock remains under pressure in 2025, but long-term fundamentals stay strong.
Upcoming earnings and Apple Intelligence rollout are key catalysts for stock movement.
Analysts are cautiously optimistic, with modest upside expected amid AI and product upgrades.
Apple Inc. (AAPL), one of the world’s largest tech companies, has seen a challenging 2025 so far. The stock price is currently around $213 and has fallen nearly 14–20% year-to-date. Among the “Magnificent Seven” tech stocks, Apple has become one of the weakest performers.
Several factors have contributed to this decline, including slow product growth, rising competition, and regulatory pressure. Investors are now asking whether this dip presents a buying opportunity or signals more trouble ahead.
Apple’s next quarterly earnings report (Q3 FY25) is scheduled for July 31, 2025. Analysts expect the company to post earnings of $1.42 per share, a modest 1.4% increase from the same quarter last year. Revenue is projected to rise to $89.1 billion, up 3.9% year-on-year.
Although these are decent numbers, the growth is slower than expected for a company of Apple’s size. Forward guidance for the next quarter also shows limited momentum, with projected earnings of $1.65 per share and revenue growth of 2.9%.
Until the earnings report confirms stronger performance, investor sentiment may remain cautious.
Artificial Intelligence (AI) is the hottest trend in the tech industry in 2025. Companies like Microsoft, Google, and Amazon have already launched powerful AI services, adding billions in new revenue.
Apple entered the AI race late with the introduction of “Apple Intelligence,” a suite of AI features designed for iPhones, iPads, and Macs. These features include improvements to Siri and integration with services like ChatGPT. However, critics have pointed out that Apple’s AI launch has been slow and lacks commercial potential.
To catch up, Apple is rumored to be negotiating a $14 billion partnership or acquisition of Perplexity AI, a growing AI search platform. If successful, this deal could boost Apple’s AI presence significantly. But analysts also warn of potential challenges in integrating AI technology quickly or profitably.
AI success is key to Apple’s next phase of growth. Investors are watching closely to see if the company can build meaningful revenue streams from its AI efforts.
iPhone sales remain Apple’s most important business segment, contributing over 50% of its revenue. However, demand for the upcoming iPhone 17 appears soft. Production estimates suggest only 85 million units, down 9% from the previous year’s iPhone 16.
Despite the drop, some analysts believe a strong upgrade cycle is coming. An estimated 300 million iPhones around the world are over four years old, which could lead to higher sales as users replace older models.
If Apple delivers meaningful improvements with iPhone 17, such as stronger AI features or better performance, it may kickstart a new “supercycle” of upgrades. That could help drive the stock higher in late 2025 and into 2026.
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Apple faces increasing regulatory pressure across the globe:
In Europe, it was fined €500 million earlier in 2025 for anti-competitive App Store practices.
In the United States, the Department of Justice is investigating Apple over similar issues.
Apple is also under pressure to open its platform to third-party developers, potentially reducing service revenue.
Additionally, new US trade policies may introduce tariffs on iPhones made outside the country. A proposed 25% tariff could increase Apple’s production costs significantly. Analysts believe Apple might absorb the cost rather than pass it on to customers, which would hurt its profit margins.
Competitors like Samsung are also putting pressure on Apple. Samsung’s latest foldable smartphones feature advanced AI tools that some believe outperform the current iPhone offerings.
Despite the recent dip in share price, many analysts remain positive about Apple’s long-term potential.
Bullish Views: Analysts from Wedbush and Bank of America see Apple as a “buy” with price targets ranging from $235 to $325. They believe upcoming AI upgrades and strong brand loyalty will boost future sales.
Neutral Views: Firms like Morgan Stanley and UBS are cautiously optimistic. They maintain a “hold” rating and advise waiting until after the Q3 earnings report or the iPhone 17 launch.
Bearish Views: Some firms, such as Needham, have downgraded Apple from “buy” to “hold.” Their concerns include high valuation, weak short-term growth, and slower AI progress compared to rivals.
Overall, the average 12-month price target for Apple stock is between $230 and $236, representing about 10% upside from the current level.
Apple remains one of the most valuable and stable companies in the world. Its strong cash flow, loyal customer base, and control over its ecosystem give it significant competitive advantages.
Other long-term strengths include:
Services Growth: Apple’s Services business (including iCloud, Apple Music, and the App Store) continues to grow and deliver high-profit margins.
Wearables and Accessories: Products like Apple Watch and AirPods are gaining popularity, providing additional revenue streams.
Geographic Expansion: Apple is moving more production to India and other regions to reduce its dependency on China.
These strengths make Apple a reliable long-term investment, even if short-term performance is uncertain.
Buy: Apple stock is trading below its average valuation and many of its tech peers. Long-term investors may see the current price as a good entry point before major upgrades in AI and iPhone releases.
Hold: For existing shareholders, holding through the upcoming earnings and product launches could offer clarity. If the iPhone 17 and AI features impress, the stock may rebound.
Sell: If expectations for innovation are not met, or if regulatory and tariff issues worsen, Apple’s stock could remain under pressure. Short-term traders may consider taking profits or reallocating capital.
Q3 FY25 Earnings Report – July 31, 2025
It could signal whether Apple’s performance is improving or slowing further.
iPhone 17 Launch – Expected September 2025
It will be the main product event of the year. Strong reviews could boost demand and the stock price.
AI Announcements – Any confirmed deals or new AI products may shift investor sentiment.
Regulatory Decisions – Ongoing investigations in the US and EU may result in more fines or new rules.
Also Read - Apple's AI Crisis: $10 Billion Investment Fails to Deliver
Apple stock currently sits at a crossroads. It is under pressure in the short term but still backed by one of the world’s most powerful technology ecosystems. The next few months, particularly earnings and the iPhone 17 launch, will likely decide the stock’s direction for the rest of the year.
For long-term investors focused on stability and innovation potential, Apple offers value. But caution is advised until clearer signs of growth emerge.
Investors should watch key financial results, AI integration progress, and regulatory developments closely before making new investment decisions.