The Bitcoin price today has fallen below a crucial bear-market indicator and has failed to reclaim it, further piling pressure on holders.
The pioneering cryptocurrency has retraced by over 4% so far this week, erasing all its upside from the previous week. This downtrend has seen it fall below the 0.75 supply cost-basis quantile, a key market sentiment indicator.
Data from Glassnode shows that Bitcoin has fallen below the 0.75 supply cost-basis quantile at around $95,000 and has failed to revisit that price level. The analytics platform identified this in a Thursday tweet using the supply quantiles cost basis model.
The model showed the prices at which different percentages of Bitcoin were bought, helping to understand areas of accumulation and distribution. Notably, it has four major lines: the Bitcoin price and the 0.95, 0.85, and 0.75 quantiles.
The 0.75 supply quantile line highlights the cost basis of 75% of Bitcoin’s supply. Typically, this is a key market trend indicator, and a drop below signals that over 25% of the asset’s supply was bought at a higher price.
Meanwhile, the 0.85 and 0.95 quantiles show the cost basis for a more moderate number of holders. If BTC changes hands above the 0.95% quantile, it suggests that fewer than 5% of holders have a portfolio rise, indicating a late-stage bullish market phase.
The 0.75 cost distribution quantile is a crucial indicator of a bear market. When Bitcoin drops below this level, it indicates the market is in a deep correction.
The longer Bitcoin stays below, the more bearish market sentiment becomes. Furthermore, as more holders panic and sell their stash, the further the chances of steeper price declines.
Glassnode confirmed that this brings more distribution pressure and creates market conditions where bears are on top. However, this changes once Bitcoin reclaims the 0.75 supply cost-basis quantile.
Interestingly, analysts also associate Bitcoin’s price trend below the key quantile as a potential bottom. The market usually forms a bottom, as seen in 2023, when Bitcoin started an uptrend that endured until the October 2025 all-time high of $126,200.
To reclaim the 0.75 cost-basis quantile, Bitcoin would have to rise by over 6% from the current market standing. Notably, there is no guarantee this will happen, as the market remains weak and is plagued by macroeconomic uncertainties.
Meanwhile, uncertainty about Bitcoin has not overshadowed the bullish sentiment around a 100x coin. The token made waves while the market corrected, showing resilience.
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