XRP's technical indicators are suggesting a rare turnaround against Bitcoin. The monthly chart of XRP/BTC shows the formation of a golden cross that has not been seen since 2018, and historically, this has come before a significant rally.
The golden cross is the event where the short-term moving average goes above the long-term one, and this is seen as a signal of strong buying interest instead of mere short-term speculation.
The 23-month moving average is said to be close to going above the 50-month average, and analysts see this as a parallel to the rally in XRP's price seven years ago.
The price action of Bitcoin is the most important factor. After hitting its peak close to $126,000 in October, BTC has retraced by more than 18% and is now trading at around $88,200.
Although Bitcoin is still in the bullish zone, it has started a phase of consolidation, which has led to a decrease in its capital attraction based on market dominance.
This situation is a favorable one for the large-cap altcoins that have good relative momentum. At the moment, XRP is trading around 0.00002115 BTC, which is equivalent to $1.86.
Analysts suggest that if the XRP/BTC ratio advances toward 0.000275 BTC, a level consistent with prior cycle behavior, XRP’s price could approach $24, assuming Bitcoin remains range-bound.
Importantly, this scenario does not require Bitcoin to decline further. Instead, it depends on sustained relative demand shifting toward XRP while BTC trades sideways.
In contrast to short-term indicators, the monthly golden crosses are slow-moving yet highly important for market structure.
One common observation made by the analysts about the relative breakouts versus Bitcoin is that they 'unfold' in stages, the first being silent accumulation, followed by the momentum of establishing.
The forecasted level for XRP/BTC is about 20% higher than the previous cycle high, indicating a breakout-and-extension pattern rather than a simple retest. If the move is supported by volume, this difference will further solidify the technical argument.
Monthly signals are slow by design, so validation matters more than hype. If XRP/BTC can hold above the nearby resistance, it will probably build higher lows as volume expands. If it fails, the ratio will likely return to the 0.00002 area, which would make the cross a false start.
Short-term projections for early 2026 remain mixed. Conservative models place XRP between $1.80 and $2.00, while bullish scenarios extend toward $3.40.
Some projections even predict $8, which would require strong alignment with the market. Standard Chartered recently suggested XRP could rally as much as 330% from current levels, citing the growing ETF narrative.
Analyst Geoffrey Kendrick noted that early ETF inflows could inject new momentum into XRP’s price action, potentially pushing it toward the higher end of the forecast range.
Clarity in regulation may be a supportive factor for the long run. Proposed frameworks like the CLARITY Act might be a big reason to reduce institutional hesitation toward assets with established payment and settlement use cases in their portfolio.
XRP’s rare technical signal, improving relative strength, and the changing institutional environment indicate the token may be positioning ahead of broader market confidence.
Also Read: XRP Falls Below $1.87 as Selling Pressure and Open Interest Rise