XRP traded near $1.08 after a difficult first half of 2026, while technical indicators pointed to a possible breakout and U.S. regulators formally classified the token as a digital commodity. The token lost 27.1% in the first quarter and another 22.4% in the second quarter, yet analysts now identify a rare alignment of chart signals and seasonal trends that could support a recovery. At the same time, a joint SEC-CFTC interpretive release removed long-running uncertainty over XRP's status under U.S. law.
On the daily TradingView chart, XRP remains inside a descending broadening wedge. Traders often view that pattern as a late-stage accumulation formation. The Relative Strength Index has also formed a bullish divergence. Meanwhile, buyers continue to defend the local bottom near $1.05.
Historical data from CryptoRank shows that XRP has not posted a negative third quarter close in the past seven years. July has gained 4.19% so far, and previous summer reversals produced sharp rebounds after weak June performance. In July 2023, XRP rallied 47.6% after an early-summer decline. Likewise, a similar reversal in July 2025 produced a 35% return.
To confirm a breakout from the wedge, buyers must push the price above the $1.12-$1.18 resistance zone. A successful move could open a path toward medium-term targets between $1.45 and $1.60, representing a projected upside of about 50%.
Nevertheless, broader market weakness and slower inflows into U.S. spot XRP ETFs could limit short-term gains. Even so, the current consolidation continues to build a base ahead of the next directional move.
On March 17, 2026, the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission published a joint interpretive release that named XRP as a digital commodity. The agencies issued the document under Release Numbers 33-11412 and 34-105020.
The 68-page release divides crypto assets into five categories: digital commodities, digital collectibles, digital tools, payment stablecoins, and digital securities. Only digital securities fall fully under SEC jurisdiction, while the CFTC oversees digital commodities.
The release also listed Bitcoin, Ether, Solana, Dogecoin, Cardano, Avalanche, Chainlink, Polkadot, Hedera, Litecoin, Bitcoin Cash, Shiba Inu, Stellar, Tezos, and Aptos in the digital commodity category. Reports counted either 16 or 18 named assets, depending on how examples in the document were interpreted.
According to the release, a digital commodity derives its value from the programmatic operation of a functional crypto system and from supply and demand dynamics rather than from expectations tied to managerial efforts. The agencies applied that standard to XRP since the XRP Ledger operates independently of Ripple's managerial control.
Read More: XRP Slips to $1.10 Despite XRPL Crossing 8 Million Accounts
The release also addressed when a non-security crypto asset may become part of an investment contract and when that status may end. In addition, it discussed airdrops, protocol mining, protocol staking, and wrapped versions of non-security assets.
The guidance followed the SEC's creation of the Crypto Task Force in January 2025 and the launch of Project Crypto as a joint SEC-CFTC initiative in January 2026. The agencies also announced a memorandum of understanding shortly before issuing the release.
SEC Chair Atkins stated at the DC Blockchain Summit that the agency is not the ‘securities and everything commission anymore.’ CFTC Chair Selig said the wait was over and pledged to establish rules that would allow the crypto industry to operate onshore.
XRP continues to trade within a key technical pattern as buyers target a breakout above the $1.12–$1.18 resistance zone. At the same time, the SEC and CFTC have officially classified XRP as a digital commodity, removing a major regulatory uncertainty while market participants watch for the next price move.