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SpaceX Stock Falls Below IPO Price as Major Share Unlocks Approach

SpaceX stock dropped below its IPO price for the first time since listing. Several insider share unlocks will begin after the first earnings report. Investors now await key dates that could influence trading activity.

Written By : Yusuf Islam
Reviewed By : Achu Krishnan

SpaceX (SPCX) closed at $135.27 on Wednesday, finishing just above its $135 initial public offering price after dropping to an intraday low of $132.28. The session marked the stock’s first close below its IPO price since its Nasdaq debut on June 12. 

Meanwhile, investors now face a series of scheduled share unlocks and the company’s first quarterly earnings report, both expected to influence trading activity in the coming weeks. At present, only about 5% of SpaceX shares remain available for public trading, while most insider holdings stay under lockup restrictions.

Limited Share Supply Faces Major Change

SpaceX entered public markets with nearly 95% of its shares locked, leaving only a small portion available for trading. That limited supply supported the stock’s early rally and helped lift the company’s valuation beyond $2.6 trillion shortly after its market debut.

Even so, the share structure will begin changing soon. SpaceX plans to release additional 7% tranches during August and September. Another larger release will follow the company’s third-quarter earnings report later this year.

Besides those scheduled releases, Elon Musk’s holdings remain subject to separate restrictions. His 6.4 billion shares stay locked until June 2027, making his stake exempt from the early-release schedule.

Earnings Report Will Trigger the First Unlock

Analysts expect SpaceX to publish its first quarterly earnings during the first week of August. That reporting period also activates the first major lockup expiration. The earnings event allows insiders to sell roughly 20% of previously restricted shares. Furthermore, an extra 10% becomes eligible if the stock satisfies a separate performance requirement.

To qualify, SpaceX shares must close at least 30% above the $135 IPO price, or $175.50, during five of the ten trading days before the earnings release. Currently, SPCX trades well below that threshold. Therefore, the additional early release has not yet qualified.

Read More: SpaceX Drops Below IPO Opening Price as Rival Blue Origin Expands Space Ambitions

More Shares Will Enter the Market Through December

SpaceX’s IPO filings outline several additional unlock dates after the first earnings release. The company will release another 7% of locked shares after 70, 90, 105, 120, and 135 days following the IPO. After third-quarter earnings, another 28% of pre-IPO shares will become eligible for sale.

Meanwhile, the standard 180-day lockup expires on December 8. Some investors also follow extended schedules that continue into 2027. Elon Musk controls about 40% of the company’s equity and roughly 85% of its voting power. His holdings remain excluded from the early-release provisions and stay locked until mid-June 2027.

The stock also failed to regain momentum after joining the Nasdaq-100, and shares remain well below earlier highs. Even so, some technical analysts continue watching a possible move toward $158.

What’s Next?

SpaceX stock closed below its IPO price for the first time since listing as upcoming earnings and scheduled share unlocks move into focus. Several lockup expirations will increase the available share float, while Elon Musk’s holdings remain locked until 2027. Investors will closely monitor the next earnings report for further market direction.

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