Solana rebounded about 10% from last week’s lows and reclaimed the $82 area, but the move left a critical resistance test in focus. The token rose 2.5% on Thursday after slipping below $84 late Wednesday, while it stayed inside the $76-$92 range seen since February. Several market watchers said SOL must recover nearby resistance levels soon, or the rebound could fade into another decline. Will SOL reclaim $86 before this setup turns into another slide?
Ali Martinez said Solana has followed the same three-step cycle since October 2025 whenever momentum starts to fade. First, SOL reclaims the 50-day Simple Moving Average. Next, it fails to hold that level as support.
After that, the token enters what Martinez called a consolidation trap. In that phase, price moves sideways for a short period before the next sharp drop begins. He said the same pattern appeared in November 2025 and again in January 2026.
In both cases, SOL fell below the 50-day SMA and then traded flat for weeks before a subsequent sell-off pushed the price to a new local low. This time, Solana moved above the average in mid-March when it reached a local top of $97. Since then, it has slipped back below the line, with the key SMA now near $86.
Martinez said SOL now sits in another sideways phase around $79-$81 and below the same moving average. He said the current action does not point to stabilization. Instead, he described it as the setup for a new leg lower.
According to him, a quick failure to reclaim $86 could open the door to a move toward $52. Meanwhile, market observer Leviathan said Solana has tested the lower edge of its local range seven times since February. He added that each rebound has grown weaker after every retest.
SOL met resistance at the 50-day Exponential Moving Average. The resistance at the EMA kept attention on a possible retest of the $76–$80 support zone. Leviathan said repeated tests often weaken support before a breakdown.
Crypto Lens also pointed to a bearish flag that has shaped SOL trading since early February. The analyst said the token broke that structure below in late March when it lost the $81 area. After the latest bounce, the price returned to test the lower boundary, which could now act as resistance.
Crypto Lens said a similar setup formed in late 2025 and ended in a 54% correction after a breakdown. Based on that comparison, the analyst said SOL could move toward the $45 zone if the structure continues to play out.
Read More: Solana Holds Near $83 as ETF Outflows Rise; Key Breakout Above $87 Crucial for Upside
Separate from the chart outlook, Neutral Trade said it was reviewing how the Drift attack affected its platform and users. Foresight News reported that the team is still waiting for more investigation results from Drift. Neutral also removed all Drift Architecture vaults from its homepage.
Users can still view those positions on the portfolio page. For now, the homepage displays only Neutral Strategy proprietary vaults. The team said those vaults are operating normally and have not suffered losses.
Neutral said its vaults underwent independent audits by Halborn, Offside Labs, and Quantstamp, and they use FORDEFI enterprise security solutions. It also said its risk engine detected anomalies during the attack and moved funds to Jupiter Lend and Kamino before losses occurred.
Neutral added that it was weighing more security upgrades and might join the STRIDE ecosystem security program backed by the Solana Foundation. Earlier, the platform reported about $3.67 million in losses from the Drift attack.
Solana price has recovered from recent lows, yet the rebound still faces pressure below the $86 resistance and key moving averages. Analysts continue to track downside risks toward lower support zones, while Neutral Trade reviews the Drift attack impact and pursues added security measures.