SoftBank Group is expected to report another strong quarterly profit as its growing OpenAI bet continues to support its outlook. However, concerns are increasing over the debt the Japanese technology investor is taking on to fund its AI strategy.
The company is expected to post a net profit of about 236 billion yen, or $1.50 billion, for the January to March quarter, based on the average estimate of seven analysts surveyed by LSEG. The results are due Wednesday.
SoftBank’s growing exposure to OpenAI has become a key driver of investor attention. The ChatGPT maker’s valuation rose to about $840 billion in its latest funding round in February, giving SoftBank a large paper gain on its holding.
TD Cowen analyst Krish Sankar estimates SoftBank’s 11% stake in OpenAI was worth about $80 billion at the end of March. This was up from $54.4 billion at the end of December.
Additionally, the increase has helped improve expectations for SoftBank’s quarterly profit. However, the company’s earnings often move sharply from one quarter to another as the value of its investments changes.
SoftBank is also expected to invest another $30 billion in OpenAI during 2026. Analysts say further gains may follow if OpenAI moves ahead with a public listing in late 2026 or early 2027.
While SoftBank’s OpenAI bet has boosted its outlook, concerns are growing over how the company will fund its next round of AI investments. Analysts say the group may be reaching the limit of what it can finance through debt and asset-backed borrowing.
After OpenAI’s latest funding round, S&P Global Ratings revised SoftBank’s credit outlook to negative. The agency said, “SoftBank’s asset liquidity and quality of its portfolio and its financial capacity are likely to deteriorate because of its additional huge investment in OpenAI.”
Furthermore, SoftBank said in March that it had secured a $40 billion bridge loan to fund its OpenAI investment. However, recent media reports said the company had to reduce a planned margin loan backed by its OpenAI stake after some lenders showed caution.
Also Read: SoftBank Cuts OpenAI-Backed Loan Target to $6B Amid Lender Caution
The scale of SoftBank’s OpenAI exposure has raised questions about concentration risk. Analysts have compared the situation with past large bets, including WeWork, which SoftBank supported before the office-sharing company later filed for bankruptcy.
Jefferies analyst Atul Goyal said SoftBank had supplied most of the capital in recent funding rounds that supported OpenAI’s rising valuation. As a result, more attention has moved to the group’s balance sheet and its ability to fund future commitments.
TD Cowen’s Sankar estimates SoftBank also has another $25 billion of investments to fund in 2026. This includes $16 billion for Stargate data centre projects and $9 billion for the acquisitions of ABB Robotics and DigitalBridge.
Meanwhile, investors are seeking more detail on where the money will come from. Reports have also said SoftBank may create and list an AI and robotics company in the United States as early as this year, with a possible valuation of $100 billion.
SoftBank’s shares have almost doubled since the start of April. The stock is now near its record high of 6,923 yen, reached in October last year.
Nomura analyst Daisaku Masuno raised his price target for SoftBank shares to 7,500 yen at the end of April. He pointed to the company’s own AI plans as possible drivers of future gains.
“While the upside potential has narrowed due to recent gains, Nomura believes that the catalyst for future price increases will be progress in the company’s own initiatives, such as the development of its proprietary AI accelerator and its AI robotics business,” Masuno wrote.
For now, SoftBank’s earnings remain tied to investor confidence in AI. However, the company’s next report may draw close attention to borrowing levels, OpenAI exposure, and how it plans to fund its next stage of growth.