75% of users on Polymarket expect Bitcoin to fall to US$55,000 as bets on that outcome reach US$1.2m. Since January, Bitcoin has lost about US$440 billion in value, while the broader crypto market has shed roughly US$760 billion. Market sentiment has dropped into extreme fear, and analysts now debate whether US$55,000 marks the final bottom or if deeper losses lie ahead.
The total crypto market capitalization fell 4% to US$2.2 trillion. A widely tracked sentiment index now reads 8, placing the market in extreme fear territory. At the same time, geopolitical tensions and rising US tariff news continue to weigh on risk assets.
Meanwhile, experts offer diverging outlooks on the next move.
Standard Chartered analysts forecast a decline to US$50,000 before a potential rebound to US$100,000. In contrast, CryptoQuant analysts describe US$55,000 as the “final market bottom.” Earlier, K33 Research analysts suggested that Bitcoin’s fall to US$60,000 on 6 February 2026 marked a local bottom before consolidation.
Pierre Rochard, vice president of Riot Platforms, called Bitcoin the most undervalued asset in the world. In parallel, a Coinbase survey showed that 70% of institutional respondents view the US$85,000-95,000 range as undervalued compared to precious metals and equities.
At the same time, Andri Fauzan Adjiima, head of research at Bitrue, identified US$60,000-63,000 as a critical support zone. He stated that if Bitcoin holds within that corridor, negative rates could pressure short sellers and trigger a squeeze after liquidations.
Still, he warned that a break below US$60,000 could open the door to US$50,000-$55,000, or even US$47,000. If external conditions continue to deteriorate, liquidations could accelerate further.
Min Zhong, a research fellow at Presto Research, linked the correction to geopolitical tensions and the macro environment. He noted that rising US tariffs increase investor risk aversion in digital assets. As a result, cryptocurrencies decline more sharply than traditional risk assets, which remain relatively stable.
Zhong added that weak demand, low liquidity, and ongoing deleveraging compound the macro pressure. The divergence between crypto and traditional markets suggests that internal market factors play a key role in the sell-off.
ETF data supports the trend. Spot Bitcoin funds recorded their fifth straight week of outflows, marking the longest streak since March 2025. Reduced inflows limit buying pressure at a time when prices test key support levels.
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Adjiima stated that the current downturn stems largely from deleveraging rather than full-scale capitulation. He pointed to cascading long liquidations worth hundreds of millions, negative funding rates, and a sharp drop in open interest.
Short-term holders now realize losses, yet long-term holders do not offload assets in large numbers. On-chain HODL signals indicate quiet accumulation while tactical risks go down.
Previously, major speculators reduced short positions sharply as they positioned for a rebound. That shift followed a period when traders anticipated recovery rather than extended weakness.
With sentiment in extreme fear and price hovering near critical support, one question dominates market discussions: will the US$55,000 mark be the final bottom or serve as a gateway to deeper capitulation?
Across the market, traders now watch the US$60,000-63,000 zone closely. A hold could shift momentum. A break could intensify deleveraging.
Polymarket data shows most traders expect the Bitcoin price to test US$55,000 as the market cap drops and spot Bitcoin ETFs record steady outflows. Analysts point to US$60,000 as key support while deleveraging and extreme fear shape short-term momentum. Investors now watch support levels and fund flows closely.