Oil prices steadied on Wednesday as traders weighed a new US-Venezuela crude deal against an oversupply outlook for 2026. President Donald Trump said the United States reached an agreement to import up to $2 billion of Venezuelan oil. The move could lift crude supply to the world’s largest consumer.
Brent futures traded near $60.81 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate held around $57.06. Both benchmarks stayed below prior-session levels after a slide. Traders continued to price in ample supply. Brent touched $59.88 earlier, while WTI dipped to $55.76 intraday before buyers returned.
Trump said Venezuela would “turn over” 30 million to 50 million barrels of sanctioned oil to the United States. He described the transfer as a way to reroute crude that faced restrictions and shipping delays.
The deal could redirect cargoes that traders had expected would be shipped to China. Venezuela also holds millions of barrels on tankers and in storage after an export blockade disrupted shipments since mid-December.
SEB commodities analyst Ole Hvalbye said, "The volumes are quite small," while comparing 30 million - 50 million barrels with the 413 million barrels in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
Venezuelan pricing also matters for refiners that run heavy grades. Venezuela sells its flagship Merey crude at a steep discount. Traders put the discount near $22 a barrel below Brent at Venezuelan ports.
Many US Gulf Coast refineries run equipment designed for heavy sour crude. A steadier flow from Venezuela can support those units. It can also reshape import demand from Canada and Mexico.
US officials said American forces moved to seize a Venezuela-linked tanker after more than a two-week pursuit across the Atlantic. The tanker operated earlier as Bella-1 and now sails as Marinera. It resisted Coast Guard boarding efforts during the chase.
Officials tied the seizure effort to sanctions enforcement and a maritime blockade aimed at sanctioned tankers. The pursuit raised questions about shipping risk, insurance costs, and the willingness of intermediaries to handle disputed cargoes.
Traders also watched the political backdrop around Caracas and Washington. The US pressure campaign against Nicolás Maduro’s government included measures targeting oil exports. Those moves tightened control over who can move Venezuelan barrels.
Market participants tracked whether enforcement actions could disrupt flows beyond the announced transfer. Any interruption in shipping schedules can tighten prompt supply, even when overall balances look loose.
Analysts at Morgan Stanley estimated the market could swing into a surplus of as much as 3 million barrels per day in the first half of 2026. They tied the forecast to weak demand growth last year and rising supply from both OPEC and non-OPEC producers.
The surplus view helped cap the bounce after early selling. Traders watched OPEC output plans closely as they tracked the next supply steps.
Analysts at BMI, a Fitch Solutions unit, flagged cheaper Venezuelan exports, noting the barrels could slow capacity expansion in the United States. They wrote, "That raises the expected price of oil over the medium term,” and that politics in Caracas can shape those expectations.
For now, crude prices react most to inventory data and refinery demand. Traders awaited official US stockpile figures after industry data showed falling crude inventories and rising fuel stocks.
Also Read: Western Sanctions Freeze $500M in Telegram Bonds as Repayment Plans Hold