Kalshi’s 15-minute gold markets have overtaken equivalent Ether contracts in estimated trading fees, weeks after their August launch. Predict Charts put September’s gold fees at about USD 5 million, compared with USD 2.6 million for Ether. Bitcoin remained the largest of the three, generating an estimated USD 60.4 million during the month.
Gold contracts recorded 542 million contracts traded in September, against 318 million for Ether. Gold’s total was approximately 70% higher, while its estimated fees were nearly twice those of the comparable Ether markets.
The contracts allow traders to take positions on whether gold prices will rise or fall over 15 minutes. Each market settles against a specified reference price when its trading window ends. Traders buy event contracts rather than the underlying metal.
Predict Charts estimated the fees using Kalshi trading records. The figures represent calculated transaction charges rather than revenue disclosed by the company. Contract counts also measure a different form of activity from dollar trading volume.
Ether’s short-duration markets had expanded before gold’s launch. Monthly activity rose from 6.1 million contracts in January to 233 million in July, then reached 318 million in September. Gold surpassed that September total despite entering the market later.
Bitcoin retained a wide lead by estimated fees. Its September total exceeded gold’s by more than 12 times. The comparison covers 15-minute prediction contracts, which settle on short-term price outcomes, rather than cryptocurrency perpetual futures.
An InGame analysis published Tuesday calculated that 15-minute crypto, commodity and financial markets generated USD 20.4 million in fees during the seven days through October 5. That represented roughly 80% of Kalshi’s USD 25.1 million in estimated non-sports fees.
Their contribution to fees exceeded their share of trading activity. Across the platform, these markets accounted for 13% of trading volume but 20% of fees during the same seven-day period. The analysis included maker and taker fees but excluded market-maker rebates since their value was unknown.
Kalshi’s fee formula helps explain the difference. Contracts priced near even odds carry higher fees relative to trading volume than contracts whose outcomes appear much more or less likely, InGame journalist Daniel O’Boyle wrote.
Kalshi states that it charges transaction fees based on a contract’s expected earnings. Its guidance also says some markets carry different charges. Certain resting orders incur maker fees when another trader executes against them.
Kalshi said on September 8 that its commodities markets reached USD 400 million in cumulative trading volume within seven months. The company said that milestone took roughly half the time required by its crypto markets.
At the same point after launch, commodities volume exceeded crypto’s earlier total by more than four times, according to Kalshi. The comparison covers the broader commodities category, rather than September trading in the 15-minute gold series alone.
‘Crypto markets demonstrated the potential for new categories on Kalshi to scale from tens of millions to billions in monthly volume,’ the company said.
The USD 400 million figure measures dollar volume, while September’s gold total counts contracts. In its September announcement, Kalshi also said it had filed for gold, silver and platinum perpetual contracts earlier in the summer. It described the launch as forthcoming but did not give a firm date.
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