Global stocks fell on Tuesday, November 3, as renewed anxiety about artificial intelligence spending weighed on markets during the US midterm elections. Traders on Polymarket put the chance of Democrats winning both chambers of Congress at about 77%. That outcome could bring more scrutiny of AI and corporate activity. Meanwhile, disappointing technology earnings and costly expansion plans added to pressure on shares.
The selling reached major markets in Europe and Asia, while US equity futures offered little relief. Investors also watched Treasury yields and the dollar and oil prices as voting began.
Polymarket's 77% figure reflects prices in an election prediction market, not a declared result. It covers a Democratic sweep of both the House of Representatives and the Senate. The vote will determine which party controls Congress.
For technology companies, the possible change matters because Democrats could seek tougher oversight of AI systems and the facilities that support them. Yet no new rules have emerged from Tuesday's voting. The prospect of regulation remains tied to the election result.
Alexander Lis, chief investment officer at Social Discovery Ventures, said a full Democratic sweep could bring populist measures aimed at AI. He also expected stronger opposition to data centers, where companies run the equipment behind their AI services.
Could a Democratic sweep add more uncertainty to Big Tech's expensive AI expansion? New permitting disputes or reporting requirements could complicate investment plans, although the supplied market figures do not establish that such measures will become law.
The election has therefore become another consideration for investors already weighing heavy spending against recent financial results. It remains separate from the earnings concerns that have pressured technology stocks in recent sessions.
US futures showed a mixed response as traders awaited election developments. Nasdaq-100 futures were broadly flat, while contracts linked to the S&P 500 lost 0.14%. Both underlying indexes had fallen for a third consecutive session on Monday.
Across Europe, the STOXX 600 index dropped 0.6% to 645.36 points. The wider retreat also reached Asia, where South Korea's KOSPI lost 3.6%. Taiwan's stock benchmark fell by the same percentage, marking its sharpest daily decline since late July.
At the global level, MSCI's broad share index slipped 0.26%. Those moves showed that pressure extended beyond the US technology market, even as investors tracked specific concerns about AI spending and future company earnings.
Apple added another source of uncertainty on Monday. The company forecast lower gross margins for the holiday quarter because memory chips had become more expensive. It also projected services revenue growth below Wall Street expectations.
Those forecasts followed other disappointing reports from large technology companies. As a result, investors faced two unresolved issues: whether major AI investments would deliver expected returns and whether the election could change the rules around them.
Read More: Indian IT Sector Stocks vs Global Tech Stocks: Which is Better?
The shift in shares came alongside moves in currency and bond markets. The dollar index dipped to 101.69 after reaching a one-month low on Monday. In contrast, the US 10-year Treasury yield rose 1.2 basis points to 4.9064%.
Steve Englander, co-head of foreign exchange research at Standard Chartered, said an unexpected Republican sweep would likely lift the dollar and Treasury yields. His assessment described a possible election response rather than a confirmed market outcome.
Meanwhile, Brent crude futures increased 1.6% to USD 106.44 per barrel. Prices had moved sharply during the week as the United States and Iran sent conflicting signals about ending the Middle East war. Oil's increase contrasted with declines across major global share indexes.
Global stocks declined as investors weighed Big Tech spending and the US midterms. Polymarket priced a Democratic sweep at 77%, raising concerns about possible AI oversight. European and Asian indexes fell, while Apple's outlook weakened sentiment. Treasury yields and Brent crude rose as the dollar slipped.