Bitcoin’s September recovery has stalled near USD 83,000 as on-chain momentum weakened and the US dollar strengthened. Its supply in profit stood near 72% on September 29 after climbing sharply during the month. At the same time, Axel Adler Jr.’s Bitcoin Impulse Performance indicator fell to zero, placing the next momentum move in focus.
The change followed a meaningful September recovery. As the cryptocurrency advanced, supply held in profit increased from 65% to 73.8%, reaching its highest level since January 20. This increase showed that a larger portion of Bitcoin supply returned to profitable territory. However, the figure slipped toward 72% by September 29 as the rally lost momentum.
Bitcoin’s supply-in-profit level remains above its September low, although it still sits below its long-term average of about 76%. Adler’s historical context shows the figure can reach around 92%.
Meanwhile, both the fast and slow lines of the Bitcoin Impulse Performance indicator dropped to zero around September 29 and September 30. Bitcoin continued to trade near USD 83,000 during that shift.
A zero reading alone does not indicate that Bitcoin has entered a downward reversal. Instead, Adler said the next movement away from zero will provide the key signal. “What matters now is which direction the indicator moves from zero,” Adler Jr. said. A move below zero would indicate negative price momentum.
A similar momentum shift appeared in late May and early June. Bitcoin fell from around USD 77,000 to USD 63,000 while the indicator dropped to nearly negative 96.
Another factor has emerged alongside weaker Bitcoin momentum. The US Dollar Index, or DXY, has risen about 2.6% since September 9 and reached 101.69 on Tuesday.
DXY tracks the dollar against a basket of major currencies, including the euro and yen. A stronger dollar can raise repayment costs for borrowers with dollar-denominated debt. As a result, investors can reduce exposure to riskier assets when the dollar gains. Bitcoin has lost some momentum during the latest DXY advance, but its pullback has remained limited.
BTC approached USD 87,500 before its rally stalled after September 21. It later moved back toward the USD 83,000 - USD 84,000 range while the dollar continued strengthening. Still, available correlation data shows that dollar movements explain only part of Bitcoin’s daily price action. Over the past 90 trading days, BTC and DXY recorded a correlation of -0.41.
That marks their most negative 90-day correlation since February 2023. Yet the corresponding R-squared stands at 0.17, meaning DXY accounts for about 17% of Bitcoin’s daily return variation.
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Shorter-term data also points to an uneven relationship. The 30-day BTC-DXY correlation stands at negative 0.45, although two strong Bitcoin sessions heavily influence that reading.
On August 19 and September 3, Bitcoin gained more than 5% while DXY declined. Without those two sessions, the 30-day correlation falls to negative 0.19. Longer-term data show an even weaker relationship. Since January 2020, Bitcoin’s 90-day correlation with DXY has averaged negative 0.14.
The relationship has also turned positive at times. It reached positive 0.22 in November 2024, showing that Bitcoin and the dollar have occasionally moved in the same direction.
Bitcoin has also shown little notable correlation with US Treasury yields. Therefore, recent data indicates that several independent forces continue to shape BTC price movements.
Attention now remains on both on-chain momentum and profitability. A sustained move below zero in Adler’s momentum indicator, combined with falling supply in profit, would show that September’s recovery is losing further strength.